Feb. 5th. (The Economist) - Bodies lay in ditches and on the streets; the injured nursed their gunshot wounds at home, too terrified to venture to hospital. Abandoned cars and burned-out tanks were scatted on the roadways. Phone lines were cut. Hundreds of thousands of refugees were said to be pouring from the city, many seeking sanctuary in camps and across the border in Cameroon. Several hundred expatriates, fleeing as bullets rang out, were whisked away by French soldiers. The chaotic and bloody scenes in Ndjamena, Chad’s capital, in the past few days are sadly familiar. The conflict which brought rebels to the capital, in an effort to overthrow the government of Idriss Déby, is an extension of long-running violence in neighbouring Sudan. By Tuesday February 5th the rebels and government soldiers had, apparently, called a halt to the fighting, with only scattered gunfire reported in the city. Over 1,000 rebels had arrived on the edge of the capital a few days earlier, and then all but overran it, before being forced back by government troops possibly—though the French deny it—with air-support from the former colonial power. The rebels may threaten another attack, but are said to have withdrawn from the capital for now. It is unclear how many died in the past few days. It is not the first time that rebels in Chad have launched an assault on Mr Déby's government, but it is the closest they have come to toppling it. A similar attack in 2006 petered out when disorganised rebels in the capital fled—this time it appears that the fighters were better prepared and more expertly led. That may be the result of guidance from the rebels' patrons in Khartoum, the capital of neighbouring Sudan. Sudan's government, despite denials, is said to want Chad's government overthrown because of Mr Déby's support for rebel fighters in Darfur, in the west of Sudan. Chad is home to at least 200,000 refugees from Darfur, and to some bases used by Darfuri rebels.
The violence this weekend in Chad's capital on the western edge of the country—and also in smaller towns farther east—is really a symptom of a conflict spreading from Darfur which has already caused instability in neighbouring Central African Republic and in the east of Chad. The timing of this particular outbreak of hostilities may be explained by efforts to install a European Union peacekeeping force in Chad in an effort to contain the conflict in Darfur. The force of 3,700 soldiers EU troops, plus a few hundred UN policemen, was ready to deploy but has been prevented from doing so by the latest fighting. Rebels—and their backers in Sudan—may have decided to act before the Europeans at last got their boots on the ground.
It is possible that the latest violence may actually encourage the active deployment, sooner rather than later, of European soldiers in Chad. France's government now says it is willing to intervene with soldiers to tackle any new rebel attack on the capital. On Monday the UN Security Council agreed that France, which anyway has some 1,100 soldiers in the country (usually kept in barracks) and some aircraft, should be allowed to intervene. The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, said on Tuesday that “If France must do its duty, it will do so.” It may be that by threatening to intervene forcefully, Mr Sarkozy has made it less necessary to do so. Ideally, however, a diplomatic solution is needed. African diplomats are beginning to shuttle between neighbouring countries in an effort to mediate between rebels and the Chadian forces. The price of conflict is evidently high: a $300m aid programme in Chad risks being disrupted; humanitarian efforts for Darfur are largely conducted through Chad.
The plight of those displaced by fighting in Darfur is likely to worsen as food-aid deliveries are suspended. But the temptations for the rebels, and Sudan, are high too. Chad is oil rich and potentially a serious threat to the dominance of Sudan's government in Darfur. The rebels argue, too, that Mr Déby's government is corrupt and dictatorial, far from a model of benign rule for Africa. Nobody believes that the rebels are fighting for better government, but nor is peace and wise rule on offer from the government of the day.
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