JOHANNESBURG, Sth. Africa: May 3rd. (NY TIMES) — After more than a month’s delay, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission on Friday officially announced the results of the disputed March 29 presidential election, saying that the opposition candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, had won more votes than the incumbent, Robert Mugabe, but not enough to avoid a runoff. Mr. Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, won 47.9 percent of the vote to Mr. Mugabe’s 43.2 percent, the election officials said. The third major candidate, Simba Makoni, who broke away from the governing party, ZANU-PF, to run as an independent, took 8.3 percent of the vote. Nelson Chamisa, a spokesman for the opposition, immediately denounced election officials for short-circuiting the vote verification process and “arrogantly” releasing the final tallies before the opposition had a chance to challenge them. But he was noncommittal on the crucial question of whether Mr. Tsvangirai would participate in a runoff. No date has been announced for one. “They did not verify the results,” Mr. Chamisa said. “They did not give us an opportunity to contest the results. They are waylaying the people’s will. Clearly, this is scandalous.”
The opposition maintains that it won the election outright with 50.3 percent of the vote, while ministers in Mr. Mugabe’s cabinet have for weeks said a runoff would be necessary. Both the opposition’s figures and those of the government fall within the range of outcomes — 47 percent to 51.8 percent — that an alliance of civic groups called the Zimbabwe Election Support Network said were plausible based on publicly posted tallies at 435 of the 9,400 polling stations. Friday’s tardy announcement of the outcome arrives amid one of Zimbabwe’s most momentous political crises since it gained independence from white rule in 1980. At a time when Mr. Mugabe, one of Africa’s most entrenched strongmen, faces a real risk of losing power for the first time in 28 years, there is growing evidence that senior officials in his party and the military have organized a sweeping crackdown on the political opposition, independent election monitors and polling officers. The aim is to intimidate those who would make it harder for the governing party to rig a runoff, as well as the opposition supporters working for Mr. Mugabe’s defeat, according to civic groups, human rights organizations and Western diplomats. The opposition was able to campaign openly and largely unmolested before the March 29 elections, but conditions have deteriorated sharply since then, raising questions about whether a significant number of voters will be either too fearful to go to the polls or will vote for Mr. Mugabe rather than face reprisals.
The opposition says that since the election 20 of its supporters have been killed, hundreds injured in brutal beatings and thousands driven from their homes. Senior government officials, quoted in The Herald, the state-run newspaper, have blamed the opposition itself for the political violence. The Movement for Democratic Change now must decide whether to participate in a runoff despite the ominous environment. Noel Kututwa, chairman of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network, which was itself raided by the police last week, said a decision by the opposition to boycott would simply hand Mr. Mugabe an easy victory. “If they don’t contest, Mugabe will be declared the winner,” said Mr. Kututwa, who was interrogated for three days this week on suspicion of subversive activities. “That would be the end. I don’t think it’s a wise idea to throw in the towel.” In recent days, opposition leaders have maintained that the party would not take part in a runoff election, but Mr. Tsvangirai had earlier said he would participate if international observers put a stop to the state-sponsored violence against his supporters and ensured a safe environment. Mr. Chamisa, the party’s spokesman, said Friday, “That decision will come at the appropriate time.” Mr. Tsvangirai and the party’s secretary general, Tendai Biti, face another very difficult choice: when to return to Zimbabwe or whether to return at all.
For the past few weeks, Mr. Tsvangirai has flown across Africa, meeting with heads of state and retired elder statesmen, pleading for the UN or the African Union to intervene. But on Tuesday, when the United Nations Security Council considered Zimbabwe, South Africa, the region’s most powerful nation and president of the Council at the time, opposed sending an envoy to Zimbabwe, saying the situation there was not a threat to international peace. Mr. Tsvangirai and Mr. Biti, who were beaten by the police in a crackdown last March, face being taken into custody again upon their return to Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe’s police commissioner general, Augustin Chihuri, was quoted in The Herald on Thursday as saying that Mr. Biti had illegally declared Mr. Tsvangirai the winner, when election law stated that the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission had the exclusive right to announce results. Mr. Chihuri said Mr. Biti was wanted for questioning and accused him of inciting others to political violence. “The only time one sees you is on the international media, making all sorts of unsubstantiated allegations against everybody else and the country, gallivanting all over the world,” Mr. Chihuri wrote in a letter to Mr. Biti that was quoted in The Herald. The process of verifying the disputed presidential vote started only Thursday afternoon, and opposition leaders were predicting it would take days, if not weeks, to complete. They said they were shocked Friday when officials released the final tally so quickly.
Independent election monitors, American and British diplomats and many civic and human rights groups have been highly critical of the way the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission conducted the vote count. They said it was not clear how the integrity of the ballot boxes was assured during the weeks of delay. Even within the governing party’s own politburo, some doubted vote count figures leaking out this week showing Mr. Tsvangirai short of an outright majority. One politburo member interviewed Thursday said he believed that Mr. Tsvangirai had won more than 50 percent of the vote. Another member, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was afraid to speak publicly about the election results, said it might never be known whether Mr. Tsvangirai did or not win a majority. “It’s going to be very difficult to prove after more than 30 days of silence and no guarantee those boxes weren’t interfered with,” he said Thursday in a telephone interview. “Were the boxes intact or opened? Where were they kept? Who looked after them? Were the seals broken?”
by Celia W. Dugger
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