Saturday, January 19, 2008

Kenya: World Bank under Pressure to Withdraw Aid until Resolution Found

The Independent Jan. 18th. (Independent) - The World Bank was under strong pressure last night to follow the lead of the EU and other donors to threaten aid to Kenya until the crisis over President Mwai Kibaki's disputed election is resolved. The European Parliament called on the EU yesterday to freeze "all further budgetary support to the government of Kenya until a political resolution to the present crisis has been found". The majority of donors to Kenya, including Britain, the US and the European Commission, signed a statement this week which threatened to withdraw aid if the Kenyan government's commitment to "good governance, democracy, the rule of law and human rights weakens". The EU is one of Nairobi's top donors, and is planning to give €383m (£285m) for 2008-13.

The World Bank was the most notable absentee from the statement. The bank's country director, Colin Bruce, was criticised last week for writing a memo, which was subsequently leaked, claiming President Kibaki's victory was valid. The World Bank's board, meeting in Washington yesterday, was expected to discuss Mr Bruce's memo and its financial commitments to Kenya. But the bank has a history of turning a blind eye to the mismanagement and rampant corruption of successive Kenyan governments, according to its critics.

Mr Bruce's Nairobi residence is rented from the Kibaki family. Raila Odinga, the beaten presidential candidate, accused Mr Bruce of being a "public relations officer" for the Kibaki regime. Sir Edward Clay, the former British ambassador to Nairobi, said that in his experience the World Bank was "duplicitous" in its dealings with Kenya. "It seemed clear they were concerned to protect their budgets and projects, irrespective of the bad management by the government of its own people's resources." he added.

The bank is currently funding 16 projects in Kenya, totalling $919m (£466m). It is also funding three major regional trade and infrastructure projects worth $260m to Kenya. "If the donors have threatened a cut-off, the Bank should follow suit," Sir Edward said.
By Anne Penketh and Steve Bloomfield
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Saudi Restrictions on Women Questioned

GENEVA, Jan 18th. (Reuters) -- Saudi Arabia, appearing Thursday for the first time before a United Nations women's rights panel, faced tough questions over restrictions on "virtually every aspect of a woman's life" in the kingdom. The U.N. Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women monitors adherence to a 1979 international bill of rights for women. Saudi Arabia ratified that pact in 2000, with the proviso that Islamic Sharia law would prevail if there were any contradiction with its provisions.

The Saudi delegates came under fire during the debate for their country's system of male guardianship that requires women to seek permission to travel, work or see a doctor. "Only when women are free to make their own decisions on all aspects of their life are they full citizens," committee member Maria Regina Tavares da Silva said at the one-day session in Geneva. "Without a man's consent, a woman cannot study or get health service, work, marry, conduct business or even get an ambulance service in an emergency," said Heisoo Shin, another panelist. She said the rules "governed virtually every aspect of a woman's life."
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C.I.A. Sees Qaeda Link in the Death of Bhutto

WASHINGTON, Jan 19th. (NY Times) — The Central Intelligence Agency has concluded that the assassins of Benazir Bhutto, the former Pakistani prime minister, were directed by Baitullah Mehsud, a Pakistani militant leader in hiding, and that some of them had ties to Al Qaeda. The C.I.A.’s judgment is the first formal assessment by the American government about who was responsible for Ms. Bhutto’s Dec. 27 assassination, which took place during a political rally in the garrison city of Rawalpindi. “There are powerful reasons to believe that terror networks around Baitullah Mehsud were responsible,” said one American intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The official said that “different pieces of information” had pointed toward Mr. Mehsud’s responsibility, but he would not provide any details.

Gen. Michael V. Hayden, the C.I.A. director, discussed the agency’s conclusion in an interview with The Washington Post published Friday. Some friends and supporters of Ms. Bhutto questioned the C.I.A. conclusions, especially since the former leader was buried before a full forensic investigation had been conducted. The British government has since sent a team from Scotland Yard to participate in the investigation into the assassination. “The C.I.A. appears too eager to bail out its liaison services in Pakistan, who are being blamed by most Pakistanis,” said Husain Haqqani, a former adviser to Ms. Bhutto and a professor at Boston University. “Given the division inside Pakistan on this issue, it might be better to have an international investigation under the aegis of the U.N.,” Mr. Haqqani said.

Within days of Ms. Bhutto’s assassination, Pakistani authorities announced they had intercepted communications between Mr. Mehsud and militant supporters in which they said the leader had congratulated his followers for the assassination and appeared to take responsibility for it. Mr. Mehsud, through a spokesman, has denied responsibility for the killing and suggested that the assassins were directed by Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s president and a longtime rival of Ms. Bhutto’s. Members of Ms. Bhutto’s political party, along with some of her family members, have also challenged Pakistani government accounts of the attack. They have blamed Mr. Musharraf for failing to provide Ms. Bhutto with adequate protection as she campaigned around the country, and some have hinted that elements of Pakistan’s government may have been behind the assassination.

American and Pakistani officials have blamed Mr. Mehsud’s followers for many recent suicide attacks against government, military and intelligence targets in Pakistan. Based in the South Waziristan tribal areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, Mr. Mehsud runs training camps and dispatches suicide bombers beyond the border areas in both countries, the officials say. He is also believed to have links to the Arab and Central Asian militants who have established a stronghold in the tribal areas. Government officials in Pakistan and independent security analysts say they believe that the Qaeda network in Pakistan is increasingly made up of homegrown militants who have made destabilizing the government a top priority. American intelligence officials say they believe that Al Qaeda has steadily built a safe haven in the mountainous tribal areas of western Pakistan, constructing a band of makeshift compounds where both Pakistani militants and foreign fighters conduct training and planning for terrorist attacks. This has led to mounting frustration among intelligence and counterterrorism officials, many of whom believe that the United States should take more aggressive unilateral steps to dismantle terrorist networks in the tribal areas. The Bush administration is currently considering proposals to step up covert actions in Pakistan against the Qaeda network.
By MARK MAZZETTI
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Friday, January 18, 2008

Protests Bring New Violence in Kenya

NAIROBI, Kenya Jan. 17th. (NY Times) — Opposition protests resumed in Kenya on Wednesday, and as many people here feared, violence erupted across the country once again. The worst clashes were in Kisumu, Kenya’s third largest city and an opposition stronghold, where mobs of furious young men hurled stones at police officers, who responded by charging into the crowds and firing their guns. One of Kenya’s television stations broadcast images of a police officer in Kisumu shooting an unarmed protester who was dancing in the street and making faces at security agents. After the protester fell to the ground, the officer ran up to him and kicked him several times. Witnesses said the protester later died. “There’s been war since the morning,” said Eric Otieno, a mechanic in Kisumu. “The police are whipping women, children, everyone. We were just trying to demonstrate peacefully.” Eric Kiraithe, a spokesman for the Kenyan police, said the only people wounded by police officers were hooligans destroying property and robbing people. “What we are seeing are teams of young men trying to commit crimes,” Mr. Kiraithe said. “You cannot call this a demonstration.”

Opposition leaders have vowed to carry on protests for two more days, and it seems that Kenya’s security forces, which have deemed all protests illegal, are cracking down harshly. On Wednesday afternoon, police officers in padded suits sealed off downtown Nairobi, the capital, and ordered everyone out, sending wave after wave of bewildered office workers trudging down the roads leading to the suburbs. Fourteen of Kenya’s leading donors, including the United States, issued a statement this week warning the Kenyan government that they were reviewing foreign aid in light of the crisis. The United States gives the country more than $600 million in aid each year. It seems that Kenya has been unable to get back to normal after a flawed election on Dec. 27 ignited unrest and violence that has already claimed more than 600 lives. Mwai Kibaki, the incumbent president, was declared the winner over Raila Odinga, a top opposition leader, but several election observers said the government rigged the tallying of the results to give the president a slim, 11th-hour victory. American diplomats in Kenya recently finished their own analysis of the voting results and concluded that the election was so flawed it was impossible to tell who really won.

Outraged opposition supporters have attacked members of the president’s ethnic group, with many people killed by machete-wielding mobs. Most of the ethnic violence has diminished, though it has left more than 200,000 people displaced. On Wednesday, many protesters said that they would continue to wreak havoc until Mr. Kibaki stepped down. Judging by the amount of live ammunition and tear gas that was fired at demonstrators or near them, police officials seem increasingly determined to show that they will not back down. Opposition leaders are not budging either. “Nothing will stop us from mounting these rallies,” Mr. Odinga said. Kenya’s economy, which powers trade and industry across a large part of eastern Africa, is taking a beating from all this. Tourists, drawn by wildlife and white-sand beaches, are canceling trips in droves, leaving some of the biggest hotels in the country only 20 percent occupied, which could lead to layoffs. On Wednesday morning, protesters fought with the police in the streets of Mombasa, Kenya’s biggest port and a main artery to the rest of East Africa. Witnesses said that hundreds of demonstrators, many of them Muslims, tried to block traffic circles in the city center but that police officers in riot gear chased them away with tear gas.

Previous unrest in Mombasa seriously disrupted food and fuel supplies, forcing several neighboring countries, like Uganda and Rwanda, to ration gasoline. Many Muslims in Kenya support the opposition because they believe that the Kenyan government, a close American ally, has persecuted members of their religion during counterterrorism operations. Many Kenyans are getting tired of the violence and disruptions and the cloud of uncertainty that hangs over the country. They had hoped that tensions would now decrease because the opposition had demonstrated that it could influence the government through its numbers in Parliament and did not necessarily need to take its grievances to the streets. On Tuesday night, the opposition party, which won more seats in Parliament than the president’s party in the December elections, used its muscle to install one of its own members as speaker, which could mean serious gridlock in Kenya’s government for the foreseeable future.
By Jeffrey Gettleman
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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Is Latin America Heading for an Arms Race?

Recent increases in defense spending by Brazil and Venezuela are attracting observers' attention.
Increased defense spending by Venezuela, Brazil, and Ecuador, coupled with significant arms purchases by Chile and Colombia, may mark the start of an arms race in South America – a region that hasn't seen a major war between nations in decades. "There is a real risk of it escalating and it could become very dangerous," says Michael Shifter, the vice president of policy at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. Concern has grown in the wake of recent purchases by Venezuela and Brazil. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, flush with oil money, has spent freely on attack and transport helicopters, Russian fighter planes, and 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles.

In neighboring Brazil, which, with half of Latin America's landmass and population, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva recently asked Congress to allocate 10.13 billion reais ($5.6 billion) – a 53 percent increase – for its 2008 military budget. Those increases came after Chile invested significant sums earlier in the decade. Colombia has received hundreds of millions of dollars in US drug-war aid for military purchases. And now Ecuador is also spending more on weapons. "I think that it is done in different places for different motivations," says Mr. Shifter, who testified before the US Congress last year on the implications of Venezuela's increased military spending. "[Mr.] Chávez is using this as part of mobilizing the country and thinking of a possible attack from the US. In Chile, it is much more about giving the armed forces what they want. Colombia spends because a lot of the [US] aid comes in the form of military equipment." The problem, continues Shifter, is that "there is tremendous mistrust between countries ... if you don't know what your neighbors' intentions are, then it is natural is to build up as much as you can to prepare for any contingency."

Some South American nations worry about Chávez's ambitions and do not want him to gain a significant military edge. "Brazil won't say it, but Chávez's build up is what has made it invest in its military," says Reserve Col. Geraldo Lesbat Cavagnari, coordinator of the Strategic Studies Group at Unicamp university in São Paulo. Brazil and Venezuela already vie for political supremacy in South America with Chávez bringing together the radical leftists under his socialist banner and President Lula leading a more measured coalition of social democrats. At this point, the two leaders are friends and the two nations have no border quarrels or historical feuds that could flare up. But there are tensions between Venezuela and Colombia over gas-rich territorial waters and border areas where Colombia's FARC guerrillas are active. And Veneuzela has made claims on the western part of Guyana. But few people believe Chávez is buying weapons in order to attack a neighbor. He has warned opponents of his Bolivian ally Evo Morales that "rifle and machine guns will thunder" if they try to topple President Morales but Venezuela still does not have a military machine capable of shock and awe, analysts said. In addition, its army is one-third the size of Brazil's, and distinctly less experienced and battle hardened than neighboring Colombia's. Any attempts to settle territorial claims on western Guyana would give both the US and Britain, a former colonial power, reasons to enter the fray.

Yet the thought of an unpredictable leader with modern weaponry concerns some of the continent's moderates. Moreover, many analysts say the region cannot afford to devote large amounts of money to weaponry. Poverty is still a major problem in most South American countries and that – along with infrastructure, justice, and education – is seen as a more worthy priority than submarines or fighter planes. "An arms race on our continent will oblige us to depart from the path of giving priority to investments in social programs," says Jose Sarney, a Brazilian senator and a fierce critic of Chávez. "Having a military power on the continent is dangerous for both Brazil and... Latin America." Nevertheless, no one wants to get left behind, especially Brazil. Investment in modern weaponry, analysts agree, is long overdue for South America's biggest nation. Years of neglect have left much of Brazil's war machine obsolete or in disrepair. Meanwhile, its priorities have changed from worrying about Argentina in the south to protecting its jungle frontiers on the north and west and its territorial waters that are home to sizeable new finds of oil and gas.

"There are very real security concerns that are being neglected," says Martin Joyce, the South America defense analyst for Jane's. "One is the Amazon region where drug traffickers are operating with impunity. Secondly, we are also seeing an increased presence of Colombian guerrillas, and that requires mobility and that is why we see helicopters and military airlift high on the priority list. Then there is the new oil reserves. Part of the reason for the procurement of a nuclear submarine is because they said they need to protect those resources. Venezuela comes fairly low down the list."
By Andrew Downie | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
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Zimbabwe Opposition to March for Free, Fair Poll

HARARE, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's main opposition said on Wednesday it planned a protest next week against a crumbling economy and to press for a new constitution it says will guarantee that elections scheduled for March are free and fair. "Our march will be dubbed the freedom walk and is intended to highlight the suffering and plight of Zimbabweans, our demand for a new constitution before the elections and most importantly an even electoral field," said Tendai Biti, the secretary general of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Biti told journalists the opposition had notified the police of the protest march, which has been set for Jan. 23. An MDC executive told Reuters that police concerns over security and disruption to traffic in central Harare had been addressed in a meeting. "It was a very cordial meeting and we overcame the two concerns which they had. We will march and they will provide (a) security escort," said Morgan Komichi, an executive in the Morgan Tsvangirai-led MDC who attended the meeting. "They (police) were trying to show us that they are now a reformed police which supports and not disrupts peaceful marches," said Komichi. But Zimbabweans have tended to shy away from demonstrations mainly over fear of a heavy handed state response. Tsvangirai said earlier this month the party might boycott the elections unless President Robert Mugabe's government implemented a new constitution. Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF and the MDC have been in South African-mediated talks on revamping the constitution since June in an effort to end political and economic turmoil in the southern African country, and ensure future election results are accepted by all parties. The talks are part of a Southern African Development Community (SADC) effort after Tsvangirai and dozens of MDC leaders were reportedly beaten in custody last March after an aborted rally against Mugabe and his government. The events drew strong international criticism against Mugabe, 84 next month and Zimbabwe's sole leader since independence from Britain in 1980, and heightened calls for him to adopt democratic reforms or step down. In Washington, U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack called on the authorities to allow the protest to go forward, telling reporters "the opposition ... should be allowed to peacefully express their views." STICKING POINT The MDC and ZANU-PF have agreed on a new draft constitution but there is a deadlock over when it should be adopted. The MDC wants it implemented before national presidential and parliamentary elections while ZANU-PF wants it after the vote. Biti said the march would test ZANU-PF's commitment to democratic reforms after agreeing at the talks to ease tough security, media and electoral laws. The laws, which were passed by parliament last year, are still to be signed by Mugabe. "We have to test the sincerity of ZANU-PF but this (march) is without prejudice to the SADC dialogue, which we remain committed to. We are cautiously optimistic that an outcome may come soon," Biti said. Critics say Mugabe has in the past used state security agents to harshly quell protests against his government but analysts say tension continues to swell among a population ravaged by rising poverty and lately shortages of cash. "The MDC's biggest challenge is to mobilise despondent Zimbabweans to join the march even if police allow it. People are tired, they have lost hope and are fearful given the regime's past response to demonstrations," said John Makumbe, a political commentator critical of Mugabe's rule.
By MacDonald Dzirutwe
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Kenya Opposition Plans More Protests

NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan 16th., (NY Times) — Kenya was in partial lockdown mode on Wednesday as opposition supporters pressed ahead with plans to hold protests across the country. Demonstrators clashed with police in the streets of Mombasa, Kenya's biggest port and a main artery to the rest of East Africa. Witnesses said that hundreds of demonstrators, many of them Muslims, tried to block roundabouts in the city center but that police officers in riot gear chased them away with tear gas. Previous unrest in Mombasa has seriously disrupted food and fuel supplies, leading several neighboring countries like Uganda and Rwanda to ration gasoline. Many Muslims in Kenya support the opposition because they feel that the Kenyan government, a close American ally, has cracked down harshly on members of their community.

In Nairobi, Kenya's capital, the streets were quiet Wednesday morning. A heavy rain that fell overnight and continued into the morning seemed to dampen spirits and diminish energy for another round of street clashes. Police officers were clumped at strategic intersections across the city, but few demonstrators had gathered before noon. Many businesses were closed, though streets were open and public buses were operating normally. The last time the opposition held major rallies, fighting broke out in Nairobi's slums, with several people hacked to death and many businesses burned. Gangs of protesters with backpacks full of rocks terrorized certain neighborhoods. But there was little evidence of that on Wednesday. Kenya has remained on edge since a flawed election on Dec. 27 ignited unrest and violence across the country, claiming more than 600 lives. Mwai Kibaki, the incumbent president, was declared the winner over Raila Odinga, a top opposition leader, but several election observers said the government rigged the tallying of the results to give the president a slim, 11th-hour victory. American diplomats in Kenya have done their own analysis of poll results and concluded that the election was so flawed that it was impossible to tell who really won. Outraged opposition supporters attacked members of the president's ethnic group, with many people killed by machete-wielding mobs. More than 200,000 people have been displaced.

On Tuesday, the opposition scored its first political victory since the election, by choosing one of its own members to be the speaker of Kenya's parliament, an influential position. The opposition party won more parliament seats than the government in the December elections and used its muscle to vote in the speaker in an acrimonious, theatrical parliament session on Tuesday night. Opposition supporters celebrated afterward across the country. Many Kenyans now hope that tensions will decrease because the opposition has demonstrated that it can affect the government through its numbers in Parliament and does not need to take its grievances to the streets.
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN
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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Dodging the Ballot: Stolen Votes Test Africa’s Faith in Democracy

January 14th. Financial Times - For a brief moment, Kenyans seemed to have summoned the collective muscle necessary to hold their rulers to account. Across the country on December 27, they assembled peacefully and in record numbers to vote. As results came in from a parliamentary contest that ran alongside presidential polls, it transpired that a generation schooled in the post-colonial politics of patronage and graft was being shown the door. There were the makings of a watershed for Africa. Alongside the eviction from parliament of nearly half the cabinet, an incumbent leader, Mwai Kibaki, looked set to be ousted and a second consecutive constitutional transfer of power – unprecedented on the continent – seemed imminent. If there were grounds to doubt that a new government would fare better at meeting demands for social justice, these were tempered by a surge of confidence among Kenyans that if incoming ministers failed, they too could be removed peacefully.

Satisfaction with democracy / World Bank governance indicators

But it was not to be. In the event, questions about the veracity of a quarter of a million or so ballots that delivered Mr Kibaki an unexpected second term as president got in the way. Kenya has since been pitched into its most serious crisis since independence from Britain in 1963, disrupting a narrative that sees Africa overcoming tyranny and conflict and moving steadily towards more accountable forms of rule. “I fear the Afro-pessimists are going to have a field day,” says Andrew Rugasira, an entrepreneur from neighbouring Uganda, recognising that Kenya’s fall will reverberate far beyond its borders. On cue, there have been rumblings about whether a continent still riven by ethnic discord and beset with development challenges is ready for democracy after all – or, at least, whether the cost in blood is worth paying. China has been quick off the mark, with the People’s Daily, mouthpiece for the ruling Communist party, suggesting on Monday that “western-style democracy simply isn’t suited to African conditions, but rather carries with it the root of disaster”. In theory, the dynamic of elections in Africa should be changing. Economic growth averaging nearly 6 per cent in recent years has started to produce a better-educated and vocal middle class in many countries, while rapid urbanisation has begun to erode traditional ties to tribe and clan among a huge underclass.

Yet Kenya’s election has exposed the country’s ethnic divisions, confirming that Africans still tend to vote for who they are rather than what they believe in. Meanwhile, the manipulation of the vote count has borne out another familiar trait: that, regardless of the consequences, African leaders rarely miss an opportunity to cling to power. “Democracy is not working in Africa,” says Nasir el-Rufai, a former Nigerian government minister who helped spearhead economic reform under former president Olusegun Obasanjo. “It is either those with money who determine the result or those in power who decide who wins.” In Nigeria’s elections last year, it was a combination of both. A day that should have been celebrated as the first transfer from one elected civilian administration to another in a history littered with military coups was marred by every kind of electoral fraud in the book. Even in South Africa, still a model for much of the continent, there are concerns about the enduring dominance of the African National Congress. With the Democratic Republic of Congo teetering on the edge of renewed conflict only 18 months after the United Nations ploughed $500m into the country’s elections, it is possible to argue that most of the main poles of economic development in Africa are, as Mr el-Rufai puts it, “democratic basket-cases”.

The consequences for Nigeria – home to one in five Africans – may yet be severe. But there was no immediate eruption as a result of last year’s rigging. This appears to have contributed to complacency in international circles over Kenya, where politicians had mobilised along ethnic lines, the race was much tighter and popular expectations were considerably higher. “One of the issues which is raised by Kenya is whether these countries can afford to have a true electoral system at this point or whether the risks are too great,” says Marina Ottoway, an expert on democratic transitions in Africa and the Middle East at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “I am not saying we should never push for elections,” she continues, “but the outcome can be a real setback and it is disturbing that a lot of western organisations, both governmental and non-governmental, assume that it is always the right thing to do.” Weighed against this line is Africa’s history of murderous despots. Moreover, those countries that have been convulsed by violence as a result of faulty polls have often been those whose institutions have been most weakened beforehand by the ravages of personalised rule.

Twenty years ago only a handful of sub-Saharan Africa’s 48 countries could be considered democratic. But as the cold war was ending, pro-democracy movements and opposition groups were pushing the boundaries of political freedom in the one-party states predominant across the continent. At the same time, Britain, France and America were loosening ties with client dictatorships and encouraging multilateral lenders to make multi-party politics a condition of continued aid. Evoking Harold Macmillan’s famous speech 30 years earlier, when independence dawned for Britain’s African colonies, François Mitterrand, the late French president, recognised in 1990 that a “wind of change” was blowing. The political transitions that resulted have ranged from the miraculous, in South Africa in 1994, to the apocalyptic. Nearly 10 per cent of the combined populations of the tiny former kingdoms of Rwanda and Burundi have been killed in the struggle for political supremacy between the Tutsi and Hutu ethnic groups, underlining the danger across the continent of politics that draw on identity rather than ideology. But these extreme events can now be seen in the context of hundreds of elections that have taken place. In many cases, voting has simply added trappings to a modernised form of one-party rule, where incumbent regimes use patronage, the control of electoral machinery and oppression to maintain a perpetual grip on power – until war breaks out. Inflows of foreign aid, meanwhile, have inadvertently compounded a lack of accountability. Donors mostly promote democracy, but when they contribute as much as 60 per cent of national budgets, they tend to want to call the shots. Nor have greater political freedoms translated into economic development and greater social justice. Where there has been a resurgence of economic growth, as in Kenya, this has often sharpened inequalities, raising the stakes at election time as well as the potential for violence. “High economic growth can actually be politically destructive. It eats away at the social fabric when it is perceived that only one group is benefiting,” says John Githongo, Kenya’s former anti-corruption chief, who exiled himself in the UK three years ago.

Yet in a handful of the most promising cases in Africa, elections have not only delivered political change and improving leadership, they have also become routine. Electoral commissions have evolved as independent institutions capable, if not of enforcing results, at least of resisting manipulation, while political parties have begun to trade across ethnic boundaries. Technology has also helped. The proliferation of mobile phones has combined with aggressive reporting in the media, notably on independent radio stations, and the advent of the internet to make it more difficult to rig, while increasing scrutiny of what officials do once they are elected. Ghana is one example. “I think politicians [in Ghana] are constantly aware of the next election even a week after they have won. Whatever they do in government they know that the day when they will have to account for their actions will come,” says Elizabeth Ohene, an education minister in Ghana’s cabinet. Alongside Ghana, Benin, Senegal, Zambia and more recently, Sierra Leone, Kenya was until recently among a select group on the African mainland to have experienced the peaceful transfer of power from one political leadership to another. “The actual polling by the public seems to have gone pretty well,” says Gladwell Otieno, head of the Nairobi chapter of Transparency International, the anti-corruption watchdog. “There were some logistical problems that are to be expected. But people greatly wanted a change and were willing to queue for hours and hours to get it,” she continued.

When national results at the electoral commission differed widely from local counts, Kenya became an important test case for international diplomacy. Britain, the EU and US have all said they will not be going back to business as usual and are working on a set of measures aimed at forcing negotiations. Yet the record of donor governments in recent years suggests that realpolitik usually triumphs, especially when the country is economically important or of strategic importance in the US war on terror. Kenya is both. “Although they [donor governments] criticised the conduct of the Ethiopian elections in May 2005, those in Uganda in February 2006 and in Nigeria in April 2007, they have taken little concrete measures to show their disapproval in the end, all opting to work with the elected government rather than to isolate it,” a Citibank analysis of the Kenya polls concludes. Ms Ottoway argues that of the recent electoral transitions, the ones that stand out as successful involved carefully negotiated processes that took into account the fears of both minority and majority groups. South Africa is the prime example. Nigeria, for all its democratic failings, is another. In hindsight, the constitution left to elected civilians by the military in 1999, looks purpose-built to prevent the kind of ethnic strife that Kenya is experiencing. Political parties are obliged to build support across religious and ethnic lines, and there is an unwritten rule that the presidency circulates between the country’s three most powerful regions. Many African countries, however, have yet to tailor political systems inherited from former colonial powers to the needs of their own societies. It is no coincidence that the same group in Kenya that has, arguably, hijacked this year’s elections, also stymied efforts in 2004 at a national conference to create a new constitution devolving more authority to regions and limiting the powers of the presidency. While Kenya has had several elections, it therefore has yet to experience a transition to more equitable rule. Instead, the same elite has ended up sharing the spoils of office, even if sometimes it has worn different political colours. “Kenya’s ultimate tragedy would be that if, at the end of this terrible ordeal, nothing really changed,” says Michael Power, an Africa analyst at Investec, the investment bank.
By William Wallis
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Attack Seen As a Setback For the U.N. In Darfur

Incident Points to Peacekeepers' Lack of Resources, Critics Say
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 13th. Washington Post -- A UN-Africa Union peacekeeping force faced the first major challenge to its authority in Sudan, this week, enduring more than 10 minutes of hostile fire from Sudanese forces without responding with a single shot. The assault Tuesday evening against a clearly marked supply convoy of more than 20 trucks and armored personnel vehicles left a Sudanese driver critically wounded and prompted a formal protest from U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. It also gave the U.N.-backed force a humiliating defeat during the critical first weeks of its mission in Darfur. The United Nations' chief peacekeeping official, Jean-Marie Guehenno, vowed to "repel" future attacks against U.N. and African Union personnel. But other U.N. officials said the force's Nigerian commander, Gen. Martin Luther Agwai, lacks the firepower to respond forcefully to a larger and better-equipped Sudanese military.

The incident marked a setback to U.S.-backed efforts to end nearly five years of violence in Darfur through the deployment of more than 26,000 peacekeepers, mostly Africans. The mission replaced 7,000 African Union peacekeepers who had largely retreated to their barracks amid armed attacks. So far the new force has about 9,000 peacekeepers, most of whom are African Union troops who simply replaced their green berets with blue U.N. berets. The United States, the United Nations and other key powers had reason to believe an attack such as Tuesday's was coming. In September, an armed group assaulted an African Union base, killing 10 soldiers near the town of Haskanita. Since then, U.N. leaders have warned of the risk of failure from entering the Darfur conflict without adequate resources to repel an attack. But requests for vital equipment -- including 24 transport and attack helicopters -- have gone unanswered. "If in this particular situation we had helicopters capable of flying at night and quickly reinforcing a convoy under attack, of course we would have been in a completely different situation," Guehenno said. "We would have been in a position to deter."

Sudan, meanwhile, has imposed technical hurdles for the mission, including the recent rejection of a unit of Nordic engineers, according to U.N. officials. The Sudanese authorities continue to haggle over the force's right to wear the U.N. blue helmets, recruit non-African troops and travel in Darfur without government approval. Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, has accused the Sudanese government of "dragging its feet" in an attempt to ensure that the U.N.-backed force remains incapable of protecting civilians in Darfur. But Khalilzad also conceded that inadequately equipping the force has placed the credibility of the United Nations and its political patrons, including the United States, at stake. "We need to take stock of this and consider steps that incentivize the government of Sudan to cooperate," he said.

Former Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi conducted a major review of U.N. peacekeeping in 2000, in which he concluded that peacekeepers should not enter war zones without consent from key belligerents or without a political settlement that the United Nations could implement. Where the United Nations does serve, he added, it must equip its troops to respond to armed "spoilers." Those lessons have yielded some success in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Congo and Haiti, where the United Nations recovered from setbacks by engaging in offensive military operations to put down challenges from rebels and armed gangs. But in Darfur, an ill-prepared peacekeeping force has entered a live battle zone involving combatants from the Sudanese army, neighboring Chad and a major Darfurian rebel group. Guehenno said: "There is a combination of factors that may lead to the greatest risk to the United Nations since the 1990s. We have a war ongoing, maybe low intensity, but a war ongoing, especially in West Darfur."

Sudan's U.N. ambassador, Abdalmahmood Abdalhaleem Mohamad, initially denied that Sudan played a role in the attack, saying it was carried out by the Chadian government and local Darfurian rebels. "There is a big lie here," he said. "We have no relationship at all whatever with that attack." But U.N. officials said a Sudanese commander has admitted that his force fired on the U.N. convoy. Sudan's Defense Ministry acknowledged Thursday that its troops carried out the attack, but it said the U.N.-backed force shared responsibility for the "mistake" because it had failed to alert Sudanese authorities that it was traveling in the area. The United Nations maintains that it provided adequate notice.
by Colm Lynch
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Monk's Words Stir the Spirit of Myanmar's Resistance

SAGAING, Myanmar, Jan 14th. Los Angeles Times -- In one of his most talked-about lectures, Buddhist monk Ashin Nyanissara tells the legend of a king who ruled more than 2,500 years ago. The king believed that spitting on a hermit brought him good fortune. At first, it worked like a charm, but before long his realm was annihilated under a rain of fire, spears and knives. Today's audiences easily find the hidden message: The assault by Myanmar's military government on monks leading protests last fall looks like a modern version of the ancient monarch's abuse. And they hope the ruling generals will suffer the same fate. In the recent crackdown, many monks were beaten and defrocked in prison. Human rights activists say several monks were among the 31 people the United Nations says were killed by the government.

It was a traumatic wound to a mainly Buddhist society, one that forced a lot of soul searching among people who practice one of the oldest forms of the religion, which emphasizes critical thought and reasoning over blind faith. The stern-faced Nyanissara, a 70-year-old monk in owlish glasses and a maroon robe, is able to stare down generals with chests full of medals by stepping carefully through the minefield that makes free speech lethal here. Shielding himself with allegory, he crisscrosses the country giving lectures that draw on history and legend to remind people that rotten regimes have fallen before. As the generals try to crush the last remnants of resistance, he is cautiously keeping the fire alive. But he knows it isn't the first time in 45 years of military rule that the government has attacked monks who challenged its absolute authority. In at least four previous crackdowns, dating back to 1965, the military rounded up thousands of monks, killing some, defrocking others, while closing monasteries and seizing property.

Each time, the brutal repression outraged many people, but in the end they felt powerless to do anything about it, the crises passed, and the generals continued to oppress with an iron fist. It's the nature of any government's leaders to "strongly test their political power. They don't want to lose it," he said in a recent interview at the International Buddhist Academy, which he founded in this riverside town whose forested hills the faithful believe Buddha walked on his path to enlightenment. "But in any faith, when politics and religion come into competition, religious leaders always defeat anything. Religion is the leader. Jesus Christ was killed, but which was more powerful? Religion or politics?" The institute sits in a valley beneath the Sagaing Hills, where hundreds of golden spires, called stupas, rise like spiritual beacons from monasteries and pagodas that dot the hillsides, 12 miles southwest of Mandalay.

The first monks to demonstrate against the government last year took to the streets in Pakokku, 60 miles southwest of Sagaing. Still trapped in the latest cycle of political turmoil, many of Myanmar's people are looking to Nyanissara for more than spiritual guidance. At midday recently, he had just returned from addressing hundreds of the faithful in a village pagoda and was hurrying to leave for an afternoon lecture, a daily routine that keeps him constantly on the move to meet the demand for his wisdom. Barefoot in a corridor of the university where student monks and nuns are trained for missionary work, the monk ran a disposable razor over his tonsured head and down across his face and neck, removing the faintest midday stubble as he spoke. Then, flanked by young aides and walking as straight and sure-footed as a man half his age, the monk got into his black sport utility vehicle, which sped on a 110-mile journey to his next stop.

Nyanissara draws large, rapt audiences wherever he goes, whether they are poor villagers crowded into small monasteries or city residents sitting in orderly rows on a side street. On a recent night, a few thousand people filled a street in Yangon, Myanmar's largest city, sitting quietly as they waited for the monk to arrive. When he emerged from his SUV, people bowed their heads to the ground as he made his way to a stage, where he sat cross-legged on a gilded chair as big as a throne.In large public gatherings such as these, when the generals' spies lurk in the audience and listen for any hint of trouble, his lectures are often built around the same lesson: Cruel rulers create bad karma. And they will suffer for what they have done. That's a moral not easily shrugged off by a government whose leader, Senior Gen. Than Shwe, is intensely superstitious: He consults astrologers to make important decisions. The ruling generals also churn out propaganda images portraying themselves as devoted Buddhists, receiving the blessing of sympathetic monks. If their faith is true, they know their actions will determine their next life in reincarnation's endless cycle of death and rebirth. "They have to be afraid they'll be coming back as cockroaches," wisecracked one Western envoy.

Several of Nyanissara's lectures have been burned onto DVDs, with titles such as "Last Days of Empire." The generals have arrested people caught selling them, but they are still widely available across Myanmar, also known as Burma. "The DVDs are very popular," the Western diplomat said. "A lot of people have mentioned watching them, or knowing of them." To most people here, the pain of seeing monks beaten up in the streets is more than just an insult to religious faith. To many, it's as if the military had harmed their own family, and the anger does not ease quickly. Almost any Buddhist with a son has watched with pride as his head is shaved to make him a novice monk in an initiation ceremony called shin-pyu, a moment as life-defining as a baptism, christening or bar mitzvah. It is a religious duty for Buddhist boys to become novice monks from age 7, and most in Myanmar answer the calling, Nyanissara said.

Just as Buddha left his own family to seek enlightenment, they live in a monastery for a few weeks, during which they are allowed to have only eight possessions: a robe, a belt, footwear, a razor, an umbrella, a glass for water, a begging bowl and a filter to make sure no living thing slips into their food to be eaten. "They learn morality and how to pay respect to their elders, and Buddhist monks too," said U Kondala, abbot of a monastery with a library of 16th century copies of Buddha's laws and philosophy, handwritten on palm fronds folded like Chinese fans. "After understanding the ways of the Buddha, they are more polite and clever, and consider the welfare of other people." Novices return to normal life with a profound respect for monks who were their teachers. When thousands joined protest marches last fall, their chants gave comfort to people who had known them since childhood. "All of the monks who came out of the monasteries into the streets only recited verses from the teachings of the Buddha," Kondala said. "The people are suffering, they are getting poorer and poorer, so the monks wanted to protect them against any danger." Nyanissara said the region surrounding Sagaing is now home to one out of every 10 of Myanmar's 400,000 monks, robed legions that listen carefully to his lectures to see the right path ahead. "It's a very big army," the monk said, and he laughed a little. But he wasn't smiling.
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Sunday, January 13, 2008

Across America, Deadly Echoes of Foreign Battles

New Your Times: Jan. 13th. - Town by town across the country, headlines have been telling worrying stories. Lakewood, Wash.: “Family Blames Iraq After Son Kills Wife.” Pierre, S.D.: “Soldier Charged With Murder Testifies About Postwar Stress.” Colorado Springs: “Iraq War Vets Suspected in Two Slayings, Crime Ring.” Individually, these are stories of local crimes, gut-wrenching postscripts to the war for the military men, their victims and their communities. Taken together, they paint the patchwork picture of a quiet phenomenon, tracing a cross-country trail of death and heartbreak.

The New York Times found 121 cases in which veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan committed a killing in this country, or were charged with one, after their return from war. In many of those cases, combat trauma and the stress of deployment — along with alcohol abuse, family discord and other attendant problems — appear to have set the stage for a tragedy that was part destruction, part self-destruction.

Three-quarters of these veterans were still in the military at the time of the killing. More than half the killings involved guns, and the rest were stabbings, beatings, strangulations and bathtub drownings. Twenty-five offenders faced murder, manslaughter or homicide charges for fatal car crashes resulting from drunken, reckless or suicidal driving. About a third of the victims were spouses, girlfriends, children or other relatives, among them 2-year-old Krisiauna Calaira Lewis, whose 20-year-old father slammed her against a wall when he was recuperating in Texas from a bombing near Falluja that blew off his foot and shook up his brain.

A quarter of the victims were fellow service members, including Specialist Richard Davis of the Army, who was stabbed repeatedly and then set ablaze, his body hidden in the woods by fellow soldiers a day after they all returned from Iraq.
By Deborah Sontag & Lizette Alvarez

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Comment from Mozlink: It is tragic to read of these events and I am left thinking again of what going to war has done to these young men, most of whom as teenagers just a few years ago, had their own expansive dreams for their lives. Then they encountered war, killing, death, body bags, hatred, prejudice, racism, torture, Abu Grave and disorder. And everything changed and would never be the same again. How easy it is to hide such a stark reality behind the ideals of patriotism, nationalism, the war on terror, support our troops, the military etc.
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African Union Asks Annan to Broker Truce in Kenya

Nairobi, Jan. 1oth. (Int Herald Tribune) - With no sign of a breakthrough in the Kenyan political crisis, it appeared that a high-profile mediator may be flying in to help: Kofi Annan. The African Union announced Thursday that Annan, the former secretary general of the United Nations, was taking over the role played by John Kufuor, the chairman of the African Union who is president of Ghana. Kufuor spent two days in Kenya trying to broker a truce between the government and opposition leaders to end the crisis, which erupted after flawed elections last month and has so far claimed hundreds of lives. Kufuor failed to get the two sides to even meet, but he insisted all was not lost. "Both sides agreed there should be an end to the violence," he said, "and they also agreed there should be dialogue." Annan will lead a panel of African dignitaries who will arrive in the coming days to try to bring the two sides together, Kufuor said. There was no immediate comment from Annan about the new role.

Many diplomats here are pessimistic that a solution will be found anytime soon because neither President Mwai Kibaki nor Raila Odinga, the opposition leader, is budging. Both claim to have won the presidential election on Dec. 27. Western observers have said there is widespread evidence that the president's party interfered with the vote tallying process and rigged the results to stay in power. Kibaki has moved ahead with unilaterally naming cabinet members, something that opposition leaders called a "slap in the face" and that American officials called disappointing. On Thursday, opposition leaders said Kibaki refused to sign an agreement that had been approved by the World Bank and that recommended a transitional government and an investigation into the election results. World Bank officials in Kenya did not return phone calls. Alfred Mutua, a government spokesman, said that the document had been prepared by World Bank officials and that the president rejected it because it was "meant to favor certain groups."

Both the government and opposition leaders, who have blamed one another for the surprise burst of bloodletting in the relatively stable country, are now also pointing fingers over the lack of progress in negotiations. "The government had offered dialogue which was to be facilitated by President John Kufuor, but Orange Democratic Movement leaders have not been responsive," a government statement said, referring to Odinga's political movement. Salim Lone, a spokesman for Odinga, said that "the government was obviously never serious about negotiations. To tell you the truth, we're getting discouraged," Lone said.

Tensions are still running high in some places in Kenya. On Thursday, the police tear-gassed dozens of women protesting in Nairobi, the capital. They shouted, "Kibaki is a thief!" and "Shame on you!" On Wednesday, Kibaki toured a charred swath of western Kenya where ethnic fighting has killed more than 150 people and driven tens of thousands from their homes. Most victims were Kikuyus, the ethnic group of the president, who have been killed by mobs in the past two weeks. As the president stood at a podium in a place called Burnt Forest, where many homes have indeed been burned, smoke curled up from more houses that had just been set on fire.
by Jeffrey Gettleman
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Disclaimer
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