Zimbabwe 'near collapse'

September 18th: Zimbabwe is "closer than ever to complete collapse" under the weight of a deepening economic crisis that threatens to destabilise southern Africa, an independent report said today. The International Crisis Group (ICG) called on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) group of nations to overcome internal divisions and focus on ways to persuade Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe to step down. "SADC must resolve internal differences about how hard to press into retirement Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe's 83-year-old president and liberation hero, and the wider international community needs to give it full support," the Brussels-based think tank said in a report.

SADC has launched an initiative led by South African President Thabo Mbeki aimed at mediating between Mugabe and Zimbabwe's opposition in the hope of reaching a political solution that would end the country's turmoil. SADC heads of state report "positive" mediation efforts but Western diplomats say little progress has been made as Mugabe tightens his grip on a once prosperous country suffering from the world's highest inflation rate and food and fuel shortages. "Four out of five of the country's twelve million people live below the poverty line and a quarter have fled, mainly to neighbouring countries," the ICG report said. "A military-led campaign to slash prices has produced acute food and fuel shortages, and conducting any business is becoming almost impossible."

Mugabe, in power since independence in 1980, accuses the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and Western foes of sabotaging Zimbabwe's economy and plotting to oust him. He denies accusations that he has hurt the economy with policies like seizing white-owned farms for landless blacks. Mugabe faces few political challenges. His opponents are weak and divided and international efforts to isolate him have had little impact, analysts say.

"Western sanctions - mainly targeting just over 200 members of the leadership with travel bans and asset freezes - have proven largely symbolic," said the ICG. "And general condemnations from the UK and US if anything (are) counterproductive because they help Mugabe claim he is the victim of neo-colonial ambitions." Mugabe has vowed to crush opponents in a presidential vote expected in 2008 and has manoeuvred to consolidate his control. His government has introduced a bill to give blacks majority ownership of foreign firms, including mines and banks, a move business leaders fear will further hurt the ailing economy. Zimbabwe's parliament was expected to start debating a constitutional bill today that would allow Mugabe to pick a successor if he chose to retire. "Some SADC leaders remain Mugabe supporters, and there is a risk the organisation will accept cosmetic changes that further entrench the status quo," the report said.
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