Thursday, January 24, 2008

U.S. Envoy Wants Political Pact in Kenya

NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan. 24th. (NY Times) — The American ambassador to Kenya said Wednesday that his deepest worries about the postelection crisis here were not about Kenyans rampaging in the streets or killing one another because of ethnic hatreds, both of which have claimed hundreds of lives. Possibly even more dangerous, he said, were the deep rifts among the country’s opposing politicians, who seem “entrenched” and surrounded by “hard-liners.” “You can never underestimate the ability of just a couple of people to tear a place apart,” said Michael E. Ranneberger, the ambassador, during an interview at his home in Nairobi, the capital. He said his chief concern was whether Mwai Kibaki, the president and Raila Odinga, the top opposition leader, were “prepared to rise above themselves and put the interests of the nation ahead of their own personal or their group’s political interest. That is still an unanswered question,” he said. The politicians need to sit down and compromise, the ambassador added, because “we’re in the middle of a very serious crisis.”

It has been four weeks since Kenyans went to the polls in record numbers, and the country is still reeling from the aftershocks of a disputed tally in which Mr. Kibaki was declared the winner over Mr. Odinga, despite widespread evidence of vote rigging. The Kenyan government has said that more than 650 people have been killed, though Western diplomats and aid workers say the death toll is several hundred higher. On Wednesday, Kofi Annan, the former United Nations secretary general, met with Mr. Odinga and persuaded him to call off another round of protests that had been scheduled for Thursday. Mr. Annan was also supposed to meet with Mr. Kibaki, but the president postponed the get-together until Thursday and chose instead to meet with Yoweri Museveni, Uganda’s president and a close political ally who is pushing his own peace plan. So far, Mr. Kibaki and Mr. Odinga have said they are willing to negotiate, but neither has offered substantial concessions, despite pleas from Kenyans and other African dignitaries. The two men have yet to talk face to face.

Mr. Annan, who arrived on Tuesday, seems to have created more buzz and hope than any visitors involved in the previous mediation efforts. “I think everybody knows that if this mission fails, there are no others in the offing,” said Salim Lone, a spokesman for the opposition. The stakes are clearly high. Killings driven by ethnic strife continue in the Rift Valley, one of Kenya’s most scenic provinces but also the most violent because of historic tensions over land that have been ignited by the election controversy. On Wednesday, two more people were killed there by poison arrows. In Nairobi, street clashes are becoming the norm. A funeral on Wednesday degenerated into a riot. Opposition protesters pelted cars with stones and set a government building on fire. Last week, protesters sabotaged a crucial railway line running to Uganda. It is still out of commission. The violence has been a mix of ethnically driven killings, fighting in Nairobi’s slums and battles between the police and protesters. Mr. Ranneberger, who has been ambassador here for about a year and a half, said he was “outraged” when he saw television reports last week showing what appeared to be a police officer shooting an unarmed demonstrator. The protester had been dancing in the street and making faces when one officer leveled an assault rifle and shot him at close range. The officer, who is under investigation, was then shown on television kicking the protester, who later died.

Mr. Ranneberger said the fighting, even in the Rift Valley, was not purely ethnic but “politically, economically and socially motivated,” stemming from tensions over land and the perception that Mr. Kibaki’s ethnic group, the Kikuyu, had marginalized others. He said the violence in the Rift Valley after the election appeared to have been organized because of the involvement of large numbers of heavily armed men who seemed to strike just minutes after the disputed results were announced. Mr. Ranneberger said the American government, which gives more than $600 million in aid to Kenya annually, was frustrated at the political impasse but was not at the stage where it was ready to cut assistance. “It’s counterproductive,” he said. “And it’s way too premature to talk about anything punitive.” The way forward, he said, was for the Kenyan government to be more inclusive and to address the long-simmering grievances over economic and political inequality. He also said officials should investigate the postelection violence and fix Kenya’s election system, which has been badly discredited by the balloting on Dec. 27. “I really am fundamentally optimistic about the future of the country,” he said, citing Kenya’s strong middle class, its high literacy rates and its independent media. “There are all sorts of reasons why Kenya can overcome this.”
by Jeffry Gettleman
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China’s Genocide Olympics

Jan. 24th. (NY Times) - The Beijing Olympics this summer were supposed to be China’s coming-out party, celebrating the end of nearly two centuries of weakness, poverty and humiliation. Instead, China’s leaders are tarnishing their own Olympiad by abetting genocide in Darfur and in effect undermining the U.N. military deployment there. The result is a growing international campaign to brand these “The Genocide Olympics.” This is not a boycott of the Olympics. But expect Darfur-related protests at Chinese Embassies, as well as banners and armbands among both athletes and spectators. There’s a growing recognition that perhaps the best way of averting hundreds of thousands more deaths in Sudan is to use the leverage of the Olympics to shame China into more responsible behavior. The central problem is that in exchange for access to Sudanese oil, Beijing is financing, diplomatically protecting and supplying the arms for the first genocide of the 21st century. China is the largest arms supplier to Sudan, officially selling $83 million in weapons, aircraft and spare parts to Sudan in 2005, according to Amnesty International USA. That is the latest year for which figures are available.

China provided Sudan with A-5 Fantan bomber aircraft, helicopter gunships, K-8 military training/attack aircraft and light weapons used in Sudan’s proxy invasion of Chad last year. China also uses the threat of its veto on the Security Council to block U.N. action against Sudan so that there is a growing risk of a catastrophic humiliation for the U.N. itself. Sudan feels confident enough with Chinese backing that on Jan. 7, the Sudanese military ambushed a clearly marked U.N. convoy of peacekeepers in Darfur. Sudan claimed the attack was a mistake, but diplomats and U.N. professionals are confident that this was a deliberate attack ordered by the Sudanese leaders to put the U.N. in its place. Sudan has already barred units from Sweden, Norway, Nepal, Thailand and other countries from joining the U.N. force. It has banned night flights, dithered on a status-of-forces agreement, held up communications equipment and refused to allow the U.N. to bring in foreign helicopters. The growing fear is that the U.N. force will be humiliated in Sudan as it was in Rwanda and Bosnia, causing enormous damage to international peacekeeping.

Another possible sign of Sudan’s confidence: an American diplomat, John Granville, was ambushed and murdered in Khartoum early this month. Many in the diplomatic and intelligence community believe that such an assassination could not happen in Khartoum unless elements of the government were involved. Chinese officials argue that they are engaging in quiet diplomacy with Sudan’s leaders and that this is the best way to seek a solution in Darfur. They note that Sudan has other backers, and that China’s influence is limited. It is true that since the start of the “Genocide Olympics” campaign (www.dreamfordarfur.org) a year ago, China has been more helpful, and it’s only because of Chinese pressure on Khartoum that U.N. peacekeepers were admitted to Darfur at all. But the basic reality is that China continues to side with Sudan — it backed Sudan again after it ambushed the U.N. peacekeepers — and Sudan feels protected enough that it goes on thumbing its nose at the international community.

Just a few days ago, Sudan appointed Musa Hilal, a founding leader of the Arab militia known as the janjaweed, to a position in the central government. This is the man who was once quoted as having expressed gratitude for “the necessary weapons and ammunition to exterminate the African tribes in Darfur.” Other countries also must do much more, but China is crucial. If Beijing were to suspend all transfers of arms and spare parts to Sudan until a peace deal is reached in Darfur, then that would change the dynamic. President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan would be terrified — especially since he is now preparing to resume war with South Sudan — and would realize that China is no longer willing to let its Olympics be stained by Darfuri blood. Without his Chinese shield, Mr. Bashir would be more likely to make concessions to Darfur rebels and negotiate seriously with them, and he would no longer have political cover to resume war against South Sudan. That would make long-term peace more likely in Darfur and also in South Sudan.

I’m a great fan of China’s achievements, and I’ve often defended Beijing from unfair protectionist rhetoric spouted by American politicians. But those of us who admire China’s accomplishments find it difficult to give credit when Beijing simultaneously underwrites the ultimate crime of genocide. China deserves an international celebration to mark its historic re-emergence as a major power. But so long as China insists on providing arms to sustain a slaughter based on tribe and skin color, this will remain, sadly, The Genocide Olympics.
by Nicholas Kristof
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Zimbabwe Police Break Up Protest

Rally Organized as Test of New Laws on Political Freedom
JOHANNESBURG, Jan. 23 (Washington Post) -- Zimbabwean police dispersed hundreds of opposition demonstrators with tear gas Wednesday afternoon in the first major test of new laws granting greater political freedoms in one of Africa's most repressive nations. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change said the demonstrations were staged to reveal whether President Robert Mugabe was prepared to loosen his grip on Zimbabwe after nearly 28 years of increasingly authoritarian rule. Despite months of negotiations on the changes, including what appeared to be significant government concessions on a planned new constitution with a bill of rights, true freedom remains elusive, opposition officials said. They estimated that dozens of their members were arrested Wednesday. "This was a severe test for Robert Mugabe, and he has failed," said Tendai Biti, secretary general of the largest faction of the opposition party, which fractured in 2005.

Tensions have been especially high in Zimbabwe since March, when police beat and arrested dozens of opposition figures, including party leader Morgan Tsvangirai, shortly before a major demonstration was to begin. That incident led to an intensive regional diplomacy effort led by South African President Thabo Mbeki, who last week traveled to Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, in an attempt to close a deal. But after negotiations faltered in recent days, opposition leaders decided to challenge Mugabe's forces on the streets of Harare, something the movement has rarely done with success since its founding in 1999. Police banned the planned demonstration. Then at 4 a.m. Wednesday, officers went to Tsvangirai's home and took him into custody for four hours of questioning before he was released, opposition officials said. That was followed by an urgent court hearing during which the party asked a judge to allow the rally. The judge told the opposition members that they could not hold their demonstration in Harare's city center, as planned, but could protest in a nearby park. But as protesters walked to the park, police blocked their way, fired tear gas and beat some of them, according to opposition accounts and news reports. Two truckloads of protesters, as well as some party leaders, were arrested, Biti said.

Calls to police spokesman Wayne Bvudzijena and Mugabe spokesman George Charamba did not go through on Zimbabwe's troubled phone system, one of many elements of the country's infrastructure that has markedly deteriorated in recent years. State radio said police believed that the opposition protest was not intended to be peaceful and had "sinister motives," according to news reports. After police dispersed the protest, a small number of opposition activists traveled toward the park where the court ruling had explicitly allowed a rally. Tsvangirai spoke to the crowd there, saying the police action had made a mockery of regional diplomatic efforts led by Mbeki, Biti said.

Negotiations in recent months between Mugabe and the opposition have led to agreement on the new constitution as well as the relaxing of laws limiting political expression and rallies and press freedoms. But there has been sharp disagreement over the timing of presidential and parliamentary elections, with the opposition insisting they should be delayed for several months so that the constitution can be implemented and a free vote guaranteed. "Under these conditions . . . the election will be a farce," Biti said, but he added that no decision had been made on whether the opposition would boycott the vote. The country has been in steep economic decline for nearly a decade and has the world's worst hyperinflation along with mounting food shortages, widespread power cuts and massive unemployment.
by Craig Timberg
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Kenya: Do we Seek Relief or a Solution?

Mombassa, Kenya, Jan 18th. - One of the saddest aspects of the post election nightmare is that every utterance or statement is scrutinized with suspicion by just about everyone in Kenya. As the middle ground disappears, even non-Kenyans are forced to take sides as the battle lines are drawn. In such a highly polarised environment, the wise man might well be advised to keep his mouth shut and only reveal his heart to the Almighty. Yet, the crisis that faces the country demands that we all search for solutions that can bring hope and encouragement to Kenyans.

What we witnessed on our TV screens on December 29th and 30th are events that we will recall for decades with outrage, horror and disgust. Our dignity and our innocence were violated before our eyes by an inept, incompetent and disgraced electoral commission. The angry rebellion all over the country was a spontaneous reaction to a vicious assault on the voter's choice and voice.

While the ECK Chairman claims he does not know if Mwai Kibaki won the election, no one knows for sure whether Raila Odinga won either. All we can say with certainty is that Kalonzo Musyoka lost miserably but recovered quickly to pick up the scraps. He now serves in a government that may be legally in place but lacks legitimacy. So we face the prospect of being ruled by a government that is deemed illegitimate at home and lacks credibility abroad.

What ever happened to our nascent democracy? Were we naïve to imagine that our votes were important, or that ultimate power rested with the people? What the December 27th election proved beyond doubt is that democracy without constitutionalism is simply ethnic majority tyranny. We may
possess an energetic civil society, a courageous media, a host of freedoms and a growing economy but we are still governed by a constitution designed to facilitate a one-party or single-ethnic community dictatorship. For two decades we have laboured to create a Constitution that protected and promoted human rights; that freed the Judiciary and Legislature from the excesses and whims of the Executive; and that produced legislation that would dismantle the colonial authoritarian structures and replace them with institutions that were accountable and effective. But our efforts have not borne fruit.

There was a "Constitutional Moment" in 1997 that was snatched from wananchi by the political class under the guise of the IPPG. They have not returned it to its rightful owner since. The Bomas farce and the Referendum fiasco were just opening rounds in a battle for power that reached its climax on December 29th. The events of the past two weeks confirm that without constitutionalism our politicians can reduce the country to ruins and deny us even the few freedoms that we thought were inherent and guaranteed rights. We are in a crisis that is recognised by everyone except a small powerful clique who are currently in denial. We have frequently heard that the best constitutions are made in times of crises. How much deeper must we sink before the protagonists acknowledge that our biggest crisis is constitutional and not merely political or ethnic?

Our religious and civil leaders keep addressing the symptoms of the crisis as they try to bring relief from the suffering. Regretfully, such platitudes and admonitions are inadequate as any resolution must begin by acknowledging the root causes of the present chaos. Any analysis that lacks substance will in any case be considered by the public as support for one side or another. Let us first admit that it is a futile exercise to attempt to revisit the tallying as the ECK has had over three weeks to complete their dirty work. There are genuine demands for a repeat presidential vote, but how satisfactory would that exercise be as the ethnic arithmetic and voting patterns have changed dramatically with the capitulation of ODM-K and the disenfranchisement of 300,000 IDPs? An early repeat election would satisfy no-one and leave us just as divided, regardless of the outcome.

Many have called for the immediate establishment of a Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission as recommended by the Prof Makau Mutua task force in 2004. Commissions of this nature, however, should follow constitutional settlements rather than precede them. When institutions are established and stability restored, we possess the capacity and confidence to face the dark side of our nation's past. But to present truth commissions as the panacea for all our ills especially when we are hurting and vulnerable is simplistic and imprudent.

It would appear then that the only viable and realistic option is for the country to endorse a power-sharing transitional government whose chief mandate would be to complete the constitutional review process within a period of 18 months and pave the way for elections in 2 years time. This proposal will not be welcomed by the conflicting parties. It will not appeal to their die-hard supporters either who are convinced that 'their man' won. Yet it has the capacity to garner the support of most Kenyans as a win-win solution that can move us slowly forward as a nation out of this dreadful mess. Such a solution demands humility, self-sacrifice and generosity, qualities which appear to be in short supply at the moment. However, I contend that any other proposal will give us just temporary relief from our misery and not heal the deep divisions that are so apparent at the moment. What is required is a solution that requires an institutional setting in which the state is no longer communalised and no longer the monopoly of a particular ethnic group, but in which the state is reinvented as the arbiter of a civic pact between all the ethnic communities. That can only occur when we acknowledge that the current crisis is about constitutionalism and not about politics.

However, I would hasten to add that a transitional government would fail once more in this task if it were not bolstered and monitored by a vigorous civil society and a panel of experts who would guide the process and prevent the political hegemonies from hijacking and politicising the process for the umpteenth time, We know the darkest hour is just before the dawn. We are surely at the darkest hour in Kenya's history but a quantum leap in terms of imagination, generosity and faith can still save the country. Our leaders must make that leap in the dark and trust the goodwill of the public and the guidance of the good spirit to see them through. Despite signs to the contrary, I believe that they are up to that challenge and I pray that
they can take it.
by Fr Gabriel Dolan SPS
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Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Annan in Kenya to Mediate in Crisis

Nairobi, Kenya, Jan 23nd. (Financial Times) - Kofi Annan, the former United Nations secretary-general, has arrived in Nairobi to try to reinvigorate the international community’s attempts to reconcile the two sides in Kenya’s political crisis. President Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga, leader of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement, have not met since a disputed election on December 27 that has triggered widespread bloodshed and crippled parts of east Africa’s biggest economy. Mr Annan’s first challenge will be convincing the two men to begin a face-to-face dialogue, but their public pronouncements indicate the gap between the two remains large.

Mr Kibaki insists he was elected legitimately and has rebuffed attempts at international mediation: his allies say Mr Annan is in Nairobi to “facilitate” not mediate. ODM has called for the formation of an interim government to oversee a rerun of the election, or the creation of a coalition government in which the powers of the president are reduced and the opposition has full control over certain ministries. Diplomats say both men have been heavily influenced by hardliners in their camps who do not want to see dialogue or have set unrealistic pre-conditions. Steven Smith, vice-chairman of the Kenya Private Sector Alliance who met both men last week, said: “People may be taking a breath this week and reconsidering what their position might be … There are things going on behind the scenes that indicate there is flexibility.” But Macharia Gaitho, a columnist with the Daily Nation, said in an article on Tuesday: “Short of getting them both in chokeholds and banging their heads together, Mr Annan has very little leverage on either president Kibaki and Mr Odinga or their respective entourages of myopic warmongers and sycophants.”

While most of Kenya is peaceful, Mr Annan is due to arrive in a bad tempered atmosphere. Michael Ranneberger, US ambassador to Kenya, on Tuesday described as “scurrilous propaganda” advertisements placed by the government that accused him and others of inciting violence by questioning the election result. Adam Wood, the British high commissioner in Nairobi, was summoned by the foreign minister on Monday to explain why a deputy foreign minister told parliament last week that the UK government had not recognised the Kibaki government. Over 600 people have died in clashes between police and opposition supporters and ethnic violence sparked by the election. More than 200,000 have been forced from their homes.
By Barney Jopson in Nairobi
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Starving Refugees Eat Endangered Chimps

NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan. 23rd. (Toronto Times) –Hungry refugees in Tanzania are eating chimpanzees and other endangered species in order to supplement their meagre diet, says an international conservation group. Refugees living near national parks are also illegally hunting buffalo, topi, eland, elephant and waterbuck, the wildlife-trade monitoring group Traffic said yesterday.

In neighbouring Kenya, aid and conservation groups say refugee camps housing thousands of people who fled violence after the disputed Dec. 27 election are damaging the environment, as displaced people chopped down trees for firewood. Camps such as the Show Ground site in Eldoret – currently hosting 11,200 people – could cause "significant environmental damage," Jemini Pandya, a spokesperson for the International Organization for Migration told reporters in Geneva. "IOM will try and protect the areas around camps in Rift Valley Province through the rebedding of saplings and plants in other areas until the crisis is over," she said.

George Jambiya, lead author of the Traffic report on Tanzania, said the refugees' vegetarian food aid rations were partly to blame for the poaching problem. "The scale of wild meat consumption in East African refugee camps has helped conceal the failure of the international community to meet basic refugee needs," he added. Traffic's report was based on studies carried out in 2005 and 2006. But Christiane Berthiaume of the UN's World Food Program, which feeds 215,00 refugees in Tanzania, said meat spoils quickly and canned meat is much more expensive. Substituting canned meat for cheaper beans as a protein supply would add $46 million to the estimated $60 million cost of feeding Tanzania's refugees in 2007 and 2008, she said. Traffic said Tanzania's illegal bush meat trade has also eaten into government revenues from licensed sport hunting and game viewing.

According to the UN refugee agency, Tanzania hosted 11 camps in January 2007, housing 287,061 refugees, down from 350,590 in 2005. Most of the refugees fled conflict in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo as far back as the 1960s, and Rwanda in the 1990s.
by George Obulutsa (Reuters)
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Saudi Rape Case Lawyer 'Reinstated'

Jan. 21st. (CNN) -- The Saudi lawyer who represented a woman kidnapped and raped by seven men said his license to practice has been reinstated. Lawyer and human rights activist Abdul Rahman al-Lahem told CNN's Nic Robertson that the Justice Ministry has reinstated his license. Al-Lahem had previously told CNN that the Saudi judge revoked his license as punishment for speaking to the media about his client's case, which attracted international attention. His client, an engaged teenager, was raped by seven men who found her alone with a man unrelated to her. She has said she was meeting with the man to retrieve a photograph. The attack took place in Qatif in March 2006.

The seven rapists were sentenced to two to nine years in prison but she also was sentenced to 200 lashes and six months in prison for having violated the kingdom's strict Islamic law by being alone with an unrelated man. The woman's sentence provoked outrage in the West and cast light on the treatment of women under Saudi Arabian law. Under Saudi law, women are subject to numerous restrictions, including a strict dress code, a prohibition against driving and a requirement that they get a man's permission to travel or have surgery. In challenging what he said were his suspension and disbarment, al-Lahem said he had received threats on his life from the religious right.

Last month, Minister of Justice Abdallah bin Mohammed al-Sheikh, in a phone call to a Saudi Television newscast, said the lawyer's license had never been revoked. "Such decisions are made through institutions in the kingdom," he said. "The punishment of the lawyer or any lawyer does not come from a reaction; it comes from a carefully examined procedure within a special council in the ministry." He said the council charged with deciding law license revocations had not issued any decisions in the case.
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Monday, January 21, 2008

Kenyan Refugees, With Hatred in Tow

A large crowd of residents of the Kibera slum in Nairobi line up at a local school to receive personal food staple rations, January 15, 2008

Time Magazine, Jan 19th. - More than 6,000 Kenyans have fled since last month's disputed presidential elections erupted into violence. For more than two weeks, Kenyan towns have suffered mass riots and looting, more than 600 people have been killed and a qaurter of a million have been uprooted. The refugees bring horror stories of torched homes, murdered family members and bloodthirsty mobs. Ethnic clashes between the tribes loyal to incumbent President Mwai Kibaki, a Kikuyu, and opposition leader Raila Odinga, a Luo, have been a particularly ugly aspect of the post-poll conflict. Ugandan authorities say they have been forced to separate refugees by tribe due to simmering tensions.

Kikuyus have suffered the brunt of ethnic-targeted violence. In Nairobi's sprawling slums and northern towns in the lush Rift Valley, reports abound of Kenyan Kikuyus being stopped at roadblocks by drunken gangs of Luo and Kalenjin tribesmen to be beaten or killed. "We don't put tribes together in the camps because they have extended their conflicts into Uganda," said Bimpabaza Hashaka, the top government official in the eastern Ugandan district Tororo. Hashaka said youth gangs of the Kalenjin tribe have repeatedly threatened attacks on Kikuyus, even going as far as to try to poison the food being prepared for Kikuyu refugees sheltering in a church. Hospital emergency rooms in Tororo have also been the site of further fighting between men of differing tribes. Refugees poured in this week as the Kenyan opposition waged three days of rallies in all parts of the country. Says Hashaka: "They keep on coming, saying their homes have been burnt." The number of refugees is expected to rise as the political tumult continues in Kenya. Nairobi's slum Mathare could have passed for a war zone on Thursday. Ambulances roared through trash-littered streets, as hundreds of protestors faced off with police. Between makeshift roadblocks, residents dodged flying stones, tear gas and live bullets. "We are after peace, but only peace with solidarity!" shouted a young man armed with a machete. Behind him, the streets teemed with crowds of people and abandoned bullet-scarred shacks. But voicing the opinion of many violence-weary Kenyans, Pamela Atieno complained of the riots: "You go out to buy food and get teargassed."

The United Nations World Food Programme says that the timeline for when the Kenyan refugees will return home is highly uncertain. The agency has started distributing food along the Uganda-Kenya border. Kenya's opposition announced Friday that it would switch to economic protests and boycotts next week, but refugees seeking shelter are still expected to flock to Uganda. It is an unusual situation for Uganda, which still has millions of its own citizens displaced due to a brutal 20-year civil war. The conflict between Lord's Resistance Army rebels and the Ugandan government only ended in July 2006. Nevertheless, says Hashaka of the refugees from Kenya: "They think they're safer here than where they're coming from."
By Alexis Okeowo
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Disclaimer No responsibility or liability shall attach itself to either myself or to the blogspot ‘Mozlink’ for any or all of the articles/images placed here. The placing of an article does not necessarily imply that I agree or accept the contents of the article as being necessarily factual in theology, dogma or otherwise. Mozlink

2 Arrested in Bhutto Assassination Plot

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan Jan 20th. (AP) — A 15-year-old detained near the Afghan border has confessed to joining a team of assassins sent to kill Benazir Bhutto, officials said Saturday, announcing the first arrests in the case since the attack that killed the opposition leader. Police also announced they had foiled new suicide attacks against the country's Shiite minority. Interior Secretary Kamal Shah confirmed the arrest of two people in the town of Dera Ismail Khan in North West Frontier province, and said one — a teenage boy — had confessed involvement in the Dec. 27 attack that killed Bhutto. He said interrogators were trying to get corroborating testimony from the other detainee before accepting the confession.

In the southern city of Karachi, meanwhile, the police chief said officers detained five men with explosives, detonators and a small quantity of cyanide intended for attacks on this week's Shiite Muslim festival of Ashoura. "With these arrests we have foiled major attacks," said police chief Azhar Farouqi, adding that the militants may have wanted to put the cyanide into the municipal water supply. Security officials elsewhere in the country said they had arrested at least 55 other terrorist suspects in a crackdown apparently sparked by a surge in rebel attacks along the restive border with Afghanistan and a spate of bombings targeting Shiites. The growing bloodshed has cast doubts on the ability of the security forces to maintain peace during the campaign for parliamentary elections on Feb. 18. It has also sparked calls from opposition politicians for President Pervez Musharraf to step down.

In North West Frontier province, a senior intelligence official said the 15-year-old suspect in the Bhutto assassination told investigators that a five-person squad was dispatched to Rawalpindi, where Bhutto was killed, by Baitullah Mehsud, a militant leader with strong ties to al-Qaida and an alliance with the Taliban in nearby Afghanistan. The official, who asked not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said the boy was arrested Thursday and was also involved in a plot to attack Shiites during the Ashoura festival on Sunday. Sunni extremists, who regard Shiites as heretics, often attack the community during Ashoura. On Thursday, 11 people died and 20 were injured in a suicide attack on a Shiite mosque in the northern city of Peshawar.

In Dera Ismail Khan, a town 170 miles southwest of Islamabad where the teenager was arrested, a district police commander said the suspect had made "a sensational disclosure." The officer also asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter. But Maulvi Mohammed Umar, a purported spokesman for Mehsud, dismissed the report. "It is just government propaganda ... we have already clarified that we are not involved in the attack on Benazir Bhutto." The CIA concluded that Mehsud was behind Bhutto's killing shortly after it occurred, an American intelligence official has said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. The Musharraf government fingered Mehsud for the former prime minister's death in December, but some members of her political party and her family have questioned those assertions. There have been complaints that the government failed to provide her adequate security and vague allegations that elements within the government might have been involved in the assassination.

Bhutto died when an assassin fired at her and detonated an explosive vest as she was leaving an election campaign rally. The blast killed at least 20 other people and wounded scores more. The death of Pakistan's most popular opposition leader threw the country into turmoil and triggered riots that left more than 40 people dead. It forced the government to delay by six weeks parliamentary elections that had been set for Jan. 8. Bhutto, who had returned to Pakistan in October after spending nearly eight years in exile, had vowed to support tough military measures against Islamic militants who have used the border areas as staging points for infiltration into Afghanistan. Suspected Muslim militants shot and killed a top intelligence official in North West Frontier Province as he left a mosque after offering dawn prayers Sunday, local police officer Javed Khan said. Nisar Ahmed, who was shot in Srekh village, headed the Inter-Services Intelligence agency's section on security in the province, an official from the agency's regional office said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to address the media. Separately, the army said in a statement it had found 5.5 tons of explosives hidden in a mosque in the Swat Valley, an area in the north of the country that it recaptured from the militants in December.
By SLOBODAN LEKIC Zarar Khan & Munir Ahmed contributed.
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Signs in Kenya That Killings Were Planned

KERINGET, Kenya, Jan. 21st. (NY Times) — At first the violence seemed as spontaneous as it was shocking, with machete-wielding mobs hacking people to death and burning women and children alive in a country that was celebrated as one of Africa’s most stable. Kenya’s tensions are especially evident in the Rift Valley. But a closer look at what has unfolded in the past three weeks, since a deeply flawed election plunged Kenya into chaos, shows that some of the bloodletting that has left more than 650 people dead may have been premeditated and organized. Leaflets calling for ethnic killings mysteriously appeared before the voting. Politicians with both the government and opposition parties gave speeches that stoked long-standing hatred among ethnic groups. And local tribal chiefs held meetings to plot attacks on rivals, according to some of them and their followers.

As soon as the election results were announced, handing a suspiciously thin margin of victory to Kenya’s president, Mwai Kibaki — whose policies of favoring his own ethnic group have marginalized about half the country — all the elements lined up for the violence to explode. Thousands of young men swept the countryside, burning homes and attacking members of rival ethnic groups. The killings go on. On Friday, six bodies arrived at a morgue in the town of Narok, northwest of Nairobi, some with deep spear wounds. On a strip of white medical tape affixed to the victims’ foreheads was written their names, dates of death and the cause: “Post-elections violence.” “It wasn’t like people just woke up and started fighting each other,” said Dan Juma, the acting deputy director of the Kenya Human Rights Commission. “It was organized.” What is not clear is if there was a systematic plan to start a nationwide ethnic war, and whether high-level political leaders played a role beyond possibly inciting violence through hate speech. Before the election, it was easy to forget that even Kenya, with its reputation as an African success story and land of tolerance, was split along ethnic lines that are ripe for political manipulation. The grievances, typically about land, economic opportunity and political power, are real and often justified, though usually held in check.

Nowhere are those tensions more evident than in the Rift Valley of western Kenya, which has some of the most fabled and productive land in Africa but recently has been turned into a scene out of “The Grapes of Wrath,” with tens of thousands of desperate people fleeing in battered pickups piled high with beds, chairs, blankets and children. Some trucks are so overloaded their bumpers hang just millimeters above the road. The violence here is decidedly different from that which grinds on in Kenya’s slums, where police officers have opened fire on unarmed demonstrators and rival gangs prowl alleys with rocks in their hands. In the Rift Valley, people do not keep their hatreds or activities secret. Those who have taken part in the killings say the attacks were community efforts, sanctioned by elders and guided by traditions that celebrate a warrior culture.

On a recent day, a dozen young men with faces smeared with mud stepped out of the forest near the small town of Keringet. They were from the Kalenjin ethnic group and said they had killed 20 people this month. They were armed with bows, arrows, clubs and knives. Some wore animal skins with cellphones tucked in the folds. Rono Kibet, one of the men, said elders in his community called a big meeting on Dec. 30. That was the night that Kenya’s election results were announced, giving Mr. Kibaki the victory over Raila Odinga, the top opposition leader, despite widespread evidence of vote rigging. More than 2,000 young men gathered, Mr. Kibet said, and the elders urged them to kill Kikuyus, Mr. Kibaki’s ethnic group, and burn down their houses. The Kalenjin had fought them before. “The community raised the money for the gasoline,” Mr. Kibet said. He explained how the elders blessed the young men, who then split into teams of 50 to hunt down Kikuyus with bows and arrows. He did not feel bad about shooting them, he said. “We attack people, we burn their homes and then we take their animals,” Mr. Kibet said matter-of-factly. A few villages away and a couple of hours later, Kikuyu farmers scanned the hilltops with a pair of old field glasses that never seemed quite in focus. They carried homemade guns built of wood, water pipes and umbrella springs, highly illegal but highly necessary, they said. Some of the sentinels were among the most educated people in the area. One, Wilson Muiruri, a University of Nairobi student, was spending his Christmas holiday moonlighting as a warrior. “I don’t hate Kalenjins at the university,” he said. “But out here, it’s different.”

In Nairobi, the capital, a senior Kenyan police official cracked open a thick binder, with the subject line “ETHNIC CLASHES,” that revealed evidence of what he called a pattern of highly orchestrated mayhem in the Rift Valley. According to the reports, a nine-foot ditch had been cut in an asphalt road by an earth mover, apparently to prevent authorities from being able to get to conflict zones to intervene; thousands of armed men had suddenly materialized in thinly populated villages; and a roadblock had been built with 10 tons of concrete. “You don’t move 10 tons of concrete on your back,” said the police official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to share this information publicly. “This is a full military operation.” Most clashes are in rural areas, which are difficult for the police to reach, and the government strategy so far has been to use military escorts to evacuate the people who want to leave. But government officials may have been part of the problem.

About a month before the election, the police found a large weapons cache — 20 bows, 50 arrows, 30 clubs, 30 machetes and 30 swords — in a government car belonging to an assistant minister, a member of the president’s party. The assistant minister, who was not in the car at the time and has denied involvement, has yet to be charged. In any case, several residents in the Rift Valley and local aid workers said parliamentary candidates had been arming young men, though no arrests had been made. Although the authorities have not produced any evidence directly linking top politicians to violence, human rights groups documented speeches by political leaders assailing certain ethnic groups in the run-up to the election. William Ruto, a charismatic opposition leader and Kalenjin chief, was quoted talking about Kikuyu domination.

Kikuyu politicians, meanwhile, made disparaging remarks about Luos and about how Mr. Odinga, a Luo, was not fit to rule because he is uncircumcised. At the same time, fliers appeared in several towns in the Rift Valley telling Kikuyus to leave. “Warning! Warning! Warning!” read one flier. “Anyone who does not obey will die.” In some cases, the literature seemed to be part of a campaign of dirty tricks to tarnish rivals. In November, a document surfaced in Nairobi, marked confidential and supposedly written by opposition leaders, that laid out a strategy to use “ethnic tensions/violence as a last resort.” “It’s absolutely fake,” said Peter Wanyande, an opposition strategist whose name appears on the document with the wrong first name. “Our opponents are the ones using ethnic violence. It’s terrible.” The government is blaming opposition supporters and their leaders for the Rift Valley bloodshed, especially the episode in which up to 50 women and children seeking sanctuary in a church were burned alive. “This is ethnic cleansing,” said Alfred Mutua, a spokesman for the Kenyan government. Several local chiefs of the Kalenjin and Masai communities said they held meetings before the election discussing how they would attack Kikuyus and push them off their land. Top opposition politicians have said they were not involved and that there were no plans for violence. “The problem was created at the spur of the moment when the elections were stolen,” Mr. Ruto said.

The disappointing reality is that all this has happened before in Kenya: the same places, the same ethnic fault lines, even the same tactics, down to the mud-smeared faces. Both of the times that ethnic violence has swept across the Rift Valley, the early 1990s and now, local tensions have been ignited by politics. The problem starts with land. In the 1960s and 1970s, Kikuyus from the central highlands of Kenya acquired large farms, some legally, some questionably through their connections to Kenya’s first president, Jomo Kenyatta, a Kikuyu. That planted a grudge with local groups like the Kalenjin and Masai. Kenya’s president in 1991, Daniel arap Moi, exploited the hard feelings for his own agenda. Mr. Moi, a Kalenjin, was facing re-election, and he used his network of police chiefs and tribal elders to attack Kikuyus and other ethnic groups affiliated with the nascent opposition movement. The clashes claimed more than 1,000 lives, and though they had subsided by the late 1990s, they never really stopped.

And this recent election cycle, once again, was primed for disaster. For the first time since the 1960s, two heavyweights from rival ethnic groups squared off in a hotly contested race, giving it an inevitable ethnic tinge. The backdrop was growing resentment toward Kikuyus, partly because Mr. Kibaki had put Kikuyus in charge of the most powerful positions in Kenya. Many Kalenjin in the Rift Valley felt their time for redress had come. Mr. Odinga was polling well and promised to implement a policy called majimbo, which means something like federalism but has been interpreted by many to imply the eviction of ethnic groups (namely the Kikuyus) from areas not native to them. Ethnicity in Africa, said Ted Dagne, an Africa specialist for the Congressional Research Service, is an easy flash point because of the perception — and often the practice — that the ethnic group in power will help its own people first and marginalize others. “You don’t see these issues in Kenya as obviously as you see them, say, in Somalia,” Mr. Dagne said, “but underneath, it’s there.”

So are cultural undercurrents. Mr. Kibet, the Kalenjin fighter, explained how at 14 he was sent into the forest for a few months to be circumcised and learn the ways of his people. He was taught how to shoot a bow and crack a skull with a wooden club. He described a transformation that he and his friends routinely make, shedding their jeans and day jobs for war paint and clubs. “The Kikuyu are our enemy because they are on our land,” he said. “It is not good to kill their women or children. But to kill one of their men, that is an achievement.”
by Jeffrey Gettleman
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A Cutting Tradition - Female Circumcision

Female circumcisers and their attendants waiting in an elementary-school classroom, where they do their work.

NY Times Jan. 20th. - When a girl is taken — usually by her mother — to a free circumcision event held each spring in Bandung, Indonesia, she is handed over to a small group of women who, swiftly and yet with apparent affection, cut off a small piece of her genitals. Sponsored by the Assalaam Foundation, an Islamic educational and social-services organization, circumcisions take place in a prayer center or an emptied-out elementary-school classroom where desks are pushed together and covered with sheets and a pillow to serve as makeshift beds. The procedure takes several minutes. There is little blood involved. Afterward, the girl’s genital area is swabbed with the antiseptic Betadine. She is then helped back into her underwear and returned to a waiting area, where she’s given a small, celebratory gift — some fruit or a donated piece of clothing — and offered a cup of milk for refreshment. She has now joined a quiet majority in Indonesia, where, according to a 2003 study by the Population Council, an international research group, 96 percent of families surveyed reported that their daughters had undergone some form of circumcision by the time they reached 14.

These photos were taken in April 2006, at the foundation’s annual mass circumcision, which is free and open to the public and held during the lunar month marking the birth of the prophet Muhammad. The Assalaam Foundation runs several schools and a mosque in Bandung, Indonesia’s third-largest city and the capital of West Java. The photographer Stephanie Sinclair was taken to the circumcision event by a reproductive-health observer from Jakarta and allowed to spend several hours there. Over the course of that Sunday morning, more than 200 girls were circumcised, many of them appearing to be under the age of 5. Meanwhile, in a nearby building, more than 100 boys underwent a traditional circumcision as well. According to Lukman Hakim, the foundation’s chairman of social services, there are three “benefits” to circumcising girls. “One, it will stabilize her libido,” he said through an interpreter. “Two, it will make a woman look more beautiful in the eyes of her husband. And three, it will balance her psychology.” Female genital cutting — commonly identified among international human rights groups as female genital mutilation — has been outlawed in 15 African countries. Many industrialized countries also have similar laws. Both France and the U.S. have prosecuted immigrant residents for performing female circumcisions.

In Indonesia, home to the world’s largest Muslim population, a debate over whether to ban female circumcision is in its early stages. The Ministry of Health has issued a decree forbidding medical personnel to practice it, but the decree which has yet to be backed by legislation does not affect traditional circumcisers and birth attendants, who are thought to do most female circumcisions. Many agree that a full ban is unlikely without strong support from the country’s religious leaders. According to the Population Council study, many Indonesians view circumcision for boys and girls as a religious duty. Female circumcision in Indonesia is reported to be less extreme than the kind practiced in other parts of the globe — Africa, particularly. Worldwide, female genital cutting affects up to 140 million women and girls in varying degrees of severity, according to estimates from the World Health Organisation. The most common form of female genital cutting, representing about 80 percent of cases around the world, includes the excision of the clitoris and the labia minora. A more extreme version of the practice, known as Pharaonic circumcision or infibulation, accounts for 15 percent of cases globally and involves the removal of all external genitalia and a stitching up of the vaginal opening.

Studies have shown that in some parts of Indonesia, female circumcision is more ritualistic — a rite of passage meant to purify the genitals and bestow gender identity on a female child — with a practitioner rubbing turmeric on the genitals or pricking the clitoris once with a needle to draw a symbolic drop of blood. In other instances, the procedure is more invasive, involving what WHO classifies as “Type I” female genital mutilation, defined as excision of the clitoral hood, called the prepuce, with or without incision of the clitoris itself. The Population Council’s 2003 study said that 82 percent of Indonesian mothers who witnessed their daughters’ circumcision reported that it involved “cutting.” The women most often identified the clitoris as the affected body part. The amount of flesh removed, if any, was alternately described by circumcisers as being the size of a quarter-grain of rice, a guava seed, a bean, the tip of a leaf, the head of a needle. At the Assalaam Foundation, traditional circumcisers say they learn the practice from other women during several years of apprenticing. Siti Rukasitta, who has been a circumciser at the foundation for 20 years, said through an interpreter that they use a small pair of sterilized scissors to cut a piece of the clitoral prepuce about the size of a nail clipping. Population Council observers who visited the event before the 2003 study, however, reported that they also witnessed some cases of circumcisers cutting the clitoris itself.

Any distinction between injuring the clitoris or the clitoral hood is irrelevant, says Laura Guarenti, an obstetrician and WHO’s medical officer for child and maternal health in Jakarta. “The fact is there is absolutely no medical value in circumcising girls,” she says. “It is 100 percent the wrong thing to be doing.” The circumcision of boys, she adds, has demonstrated health benefits, namely reduced risk of infection and some protection against H.I.V.

Nonetheless, as Western awareness of female genital cutting has grown, anthropologists, policy makers and health officials have warned against blindly judging those who practice it, saying that progress is best made by working with local leaders and opinion-makers to gradually shift the public discussion of female circumcision from what it’s believed to bestow upon a girl toward what it takes away. “These mothers believe they are doing something good for their children,” Guarenti, a native of Italy, told me. “For our culture that is not easily understandable. To judge them harshly is to isolate them. You cannot make change that way.”
By SARA CORBETT
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Saturday, January 19, 2008

Kenya: World Bank under Pressure to Withdraw Aid until Resolution Found

The Independent Jan. 18th. (Independent) - The World Bank was under strong pressure last night to follow the lead of the EU and other donors to threaten aid to Kenya until the crisis over President Mwai Kibaki's disputed election is resolved. The European Parliament called on the EU yesterday to freeze "all further budgetary support to the government of Kenya until a political resolution to the present crisis has been found". The majority of donors to Kenya, including Britain, the US and the European Commission, signed a statement this week which threatened to withdraw aid if the Kenyan government's commitment to "good governance, democracy, the rule of law and human rights weakens". The EU is one of Nairobi's top donors, and is planning to give €383m (£285m) for 2008-13.

The World Bank was the most notable absentee from the statement. The bank's country director, Colin Bruce, was criticised last week for writing a memo, which was subsequently leaked, claiming President Kibaki's victory was valid. The World Bank's board, meeting in Washington yesterday, was expected to discuss Mr Bruce's memo and its financial commitments to Kenya. But the bank has a history of turning a blind eye to the mismanagement and rampant corruption of successive Kenyan governments, according to its critics.

Mr Bruce's Nairobi residence is rented from the Kibaki family. Raila Odinga, the beaten presidential candidate, accused Mr Bruce of being a "public relations officer" for the Kibaki regime. Sir Edward Clay, the former British ambassador to Nairobi, said that in his experience the World Bank was "duplicitous" in its dealings with Kenya. "It seemed clear they were concerned to protect their budgets and projects, irrespective of the bad management by the government of its own people's resources." he added.

The bank is currently funding 16 projects in Kenya, totalling $919m (£466m). It is also funding three major regional trade and infrastructure projects worth $260m to Kenya. "If the donors have threatened a cut-off, the Bank should follow suit," Sir Edward said.
By Anne Penketh and Steve Bloomfield
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Saudi Restrictions on Women Questioned

GENEVA, Jan 18th. (Reuters) -- Saudi Arabia, appearing Thursday for the first time before a United Nations women's rights panel, faced tough questions over restrictions on "virtually every aspect of a woman's life" in the kingdom. The U.N. Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women monitors adherence to a 1979 international bill of rights for women. Saudi Arabia ratified that pact in 2000, with the proviso that Islamic Sharia law would prevail if there were any contradiction with its provisions.

The Saudi delegates came under fire during the debate for their country's system of male guardianship that requires women to seek permission to travel, work or see a doctor. "Only when women are free to make their own decisions on all aspects of their life are they full citizens," committee member Maria Regina Tavares da Silva said at the one-day session in Geneva. "Without a man's consent, a woman cannot study or get health service, work, marry, conduct business or even get an ambulance service in an emergency," said Heisoo Shin, another panelist. She said the rules "governed virtually every aspect of a woman's life."
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C.I.A. Sees Qaeda Link in the Death of Bhutto

WASHINGTON, Jan 19th. (NY Times) — The Central Intelligence Agency has concluded that the assassins of Benazir Bhutto, the former Pakistani prime minister, were directed by Baitullah Mehsud, a Pakistani militant leader in hiding, and that some of them had ties to Al Qaeda. The C.I.A.’s judgment is the first formal assessment by the American government about who was responsible for Ms. Bhutto’s Dec. 27 assassination, which took place during a political rally in the garrison city of Rawalpindi. “There are powerful reasons to believe that terror networks around Baitullah Mehsud were responsible,” said one American intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The official said that “different pieces of information” had pointed toward Mr. Mehsud’s responsibility, but he would not provide any details.

Gen. Michael V. Hayden, the C.I.A. director, discussed the agency’s conclusion in an interview with The Washington Post published Friday. Some friends and supporters of Ms. Bhutto questioned the C.I.A. conclusions, especially since the former leader was buried before a full forensic investigation had been conducted. The British government has since sent a team from Scotland Yard to participate in the investigation into the assassination. “The C.I.A. appears too eager to bail out its liaison services in Pakistan, who are being blamed by most Pakistanis,” said Husain Haqqani, a former adviser to Ms. Bhutto and a professor at Boston University. “Given the division inside Pakistan on this issue, it might be better to have an international investigation under the aegis of the U.N.,” Mr. Haqqani said.

Within days of Ms. Bhutto’s assassination, Pakistani authorities announced they had intercepted communications between Mr. Mehsud and militant supporters in which they said the leader had congratulated his followers for the assassination and appeared to take responsibility for it. Mr. Mehsud, through a spokesman, has denied responsibility for the killing and suggested that the assassins were directed by Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s president and a longtime rival of Ms. Bhutto’s. Members of Ms. Bhutto’s political party, along with some of her family members, have also challenged Pakistani government accounts of the attack. They have blamed Mr. Musharraf for failing to provide Ms. Bhutto with adequate protection as she campaigned around the country, and some have hinted that elements of Pakistan’s government may have been behind the assassination.

American and Pakistani officials have blamed Mr. Mehsud’s followers for many recent suicide attacks against government, military and intelligence targets in Pakistan. Based in the South Waziristan tribal areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, Mr. Mehsud runs training camps and dispatches suicide bombers beyond the border areas in both countries, the officials say. He is also believed to have links to the Arab and Central Asian militants who have established a stronghold in the tribal areas. Government officials in Pakistan and independent security analysts say they believe that the Qaeda network in Pakistan is increasingly made up of homegrown militants who have made destabilizing the government a top priority. American intelligence officials say they believe that Al Qaeda has steadily built a safe haven in the mountainous tribal areas of western Pakistan, constructing a band of makeshift compounds where both Pakistani militants and foreign fighters conduct training and planning for terrorist attacks. This has led to mounting frustration among intelligence and counterterrorism officials, many of whom believe that the United States should take more aggressive unilateral steps to dismantle terrorist networks in the tribal areas. The Bush administration is currently considering proposals to step up covert actions in Pakistan against the Qaeda network.
By MARK MAZZETTI
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Disclaimer
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Friday, January 18, 2008

Protests Bring New Violence in Kenya

NAIROBI, Kenya Jan. 17th. (NY Times) — Opposition protests resumed in Kenya on Wednesday, and as many people here feared, violence erupted across the country once again. The worst clashes were in Kisumu, Kenya’s third largest city and an opposition stronghold, where mobs of furious young men hurled stones at police officers, who responded by charging into the crowds and firing their guns. One of Kenya’s television stations broadcast images of a police officer in Kisumu shooting an unarmed protester who was dancing in the street and making faces at security agents. After the protester fell to the ground, the officer ran up to him and kicked him several times. Witnesses said the protester later died. “There’s been war since the morning,” said Eric Otieno, a mechanic in Kisumu. “The police are whipping women, children, everyone. We were just trying to demonstrate peacefully.” Eric Kiraithe, a spokesman for the Kenyan police, said the only people wounded by police officers were hooligans destroying property and robbing people. “What we are seeing are teams of young men trying to commit crimes,” Mr. Kiraithe said. “You cannot call this a demonstration.”

Opposition leaders have vowed to carry on protests for two more days, and it seems that Kenya’s security forces, which have deemed all protests illegal, are cracking down harshly. On Wednesday afternoon, police officers in padded suits sealed off downtown Nairobi, the capital, and ordered everyone out, sending wave after wave of bewildered office workers trudging down the roads leading to the suburbs. Fourteen of Kenya’s leading donors, including the United States, issued a statement this week warning the Kenyan government that they were reviewing foreign aid in light of the crisis. The United States gives the country more than $600 million in aid each year. It seems that Kenya has been unable to get back to normal after a flawed election on Dec. 27 ignited unrest and violence that has already claimed more than 600 lives. Mwai Kibaki, the incumbent president, was declared the winner over Raila Odinga, a top opposition leader, but several election observers said the government rigged the tallying of the results to give the president a slim, 11th-hour victory. American diplomats in Kenya recently finished their own analysis of the voting results and concluded that the election was so flawed it was impossible to tell who really won.

Outraged opposition supporters have attacked members of the president’s ethnic group, with many people killed by machete-wielding mobs. Most of the ethnic violence has diminished, though it has left more than 200,000 people displaced. On Wednesday, many protesters said that they would continue to wreak havoc until Mr. Kibaki stepped down. Judging by the amount of live ammunition and tear gas that was fired at demonstrators or near them, police officials seem increasingly determined to show that they will not back down. Opposition leaders are not budging either. “Nothing will stop us from mounting these rallies,” Mr. Odinga said. Kenya’s economy, which powers trade and industry across a large part of eastern Africa, is taking a beating from all this. Tourists, drawn by wildlife and white-sand beaches, are canceling trips in droves, leaving some of the biggest hotels in the country only 20 percent occupied, which could lead to layoffs. On Wednesday morning, protesters fought with the police in the streets of Mombasa, Kenya’s biggest port and a main artery to the rest of East Africa. Witnesses said that hundreds of demonstrators, many of them Muslims, tried to block traffic circles in the city center but that police officers in riot gear chased them away with tear gas.

Previous unrest in Mombasa seriously disrupted food and fuel supplies, forcing several neighboring countries, like Uganda and Rwanda, to ration gasoline. Many Muslims in Kenya support the opposition because they believe that the Kenyan government, a close American ally, has persecuted members of their religion during counterterrorism operations. Many Kenyans are getting tired of the violence and disruptions and the cloud of uncertainty that hangs over the country. They had hoped that tensions would now decrease because the opposition had demonstrated that it could influence the government through its numbers in Parliament and did not necessarily need to take its grievances to the streets. On Tuesday night, the opposition party, which won more seats in Parliament than the president’s party in the December elections, used its muscle to install one of its own members as speaker, which could mean serious gridlock in Kenya’s government for the foreseeable future.
By Jeffrey Gettleman
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Disclaimer
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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Is Latin America Heading for an Arms Race?

Recent increases in defense spending by Brazil and Venezuela are attracting observers' attention.
Increased defense spending by Venezuela, Brazil, and Ecuador, coupled with significant arms purchases by Chile and Colombia, may mark the start of an arms race in South America – a region that hasn't seen a major war between nations in decades. "There is a real risk of it escalating and it could become very dangerous," says Michael Shifter, the vice president of policy at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. Concern has grown in the wake of recent purchases by Venezuela and Brazil. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, flush with oil money, has spent freely on attack and transport helicopters, Russian fighter planes, and 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles.

In neighboring Brazil, which, with half of Latin America's landmass and population, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva recently asked Congress to allocate 10.13 billion reais ($5.6 billion) – a 53 percent increase – for its 2008 military budget. Those increases came after Chile invested significant sums earlier in the decade. Colombia has received hundreds of millions of dollars in US drug-war aid for military purchases. And now Ecuador is also spending more on weapons. "I think that it is done in different places for different motivations," says Mr. Shifter, who testified before the US Congress last year on the implications of Venezuela's increased military spending. "[Mr.] Chávez is using this as part of mobilizing the country and thinking of a possible attack from the US. In Chile, it is much more about giving the armed forces what they want. Colombia spends because a lot of the [US] aid comes in the form of military equipment." The problem, continues Shifter, is that "there is tremendous mistrust between countries ... if you don't know what your neighbors' intentions are, then it is natural is to build up as much as you can to prepare for any contingency."

Some South American nations worry about Chávez's ambitions and do not want him to gain a significant military edge. "Brazil won't say it, but Chávez's build up is what has made it invest in its military," says Reserve Col. Geraldo Lesbat Cavagnari, coordinator of the Strategic Studies Group at Unicamp university in São Paulo. Brazil and Venezuela already vie for political supremacy in South America with Chávez bringing together the radical leftists under his socialist banner and President Lula leading a more measured coalition of social democrats. At this point, the two leaders are friends and the two nations have no border quarrels or historical feuds that could flare up. But there are tensions between Venezuela and Colombia over gas-rich territorial waters and border areas where Colombia's FARC guerrillas are active. And Veneuzela has made claims on the western part of Guyana. But few people believe Chávez is buying weapons in order to attack a neighbor. He has warned opponents of his Bolivian ally Evo Morales that "rifle and machine guns will thunder" if they try to topple President Morales but Venezuela still does not have a military machine capable of shock and awe, analysts said. In addition, its army is one-third the size of Brazil's, and distinctly less experienced and battle hardened than neighboring Colombia's. Any attempts to settle territorial claims on western Guyana would give both the US and Britain, a former colonial power, reasons to enter the fray.

Yet the thought of an unpredictable leader with modern weaponry concerns some of the continent's moderates. Moreover, many analysts say the region cannot afford to devote large amounts of money to weaponry. Poverty is still a major problem in most South American countries and that – along with infrastructure, justice, and education – is seen as a more worthy priority than submarines or fighter planes. "An arms race on our continent will oblige us to depart from the path of giving priority to investments in social programs," says Jose Sarney, a Brazilian senator and a fierce critic of Chávez. "Having a military power on the continent is dangerous for both Brazil and... Latin America." Nevertheless, no one wants to get left behind, especially Brazil. Investment in modern weaponry, analysts agree, is long overdue for South America's biggest nation. Years of neglect have left much of Brazil's war machine obsolete or in disrepair. Meanwhile, its priorities have changed from worrying about Argentina in the south to protecting its jungle frontiers on the north and west and its territorial waters that are home to sizeable new finds of oil and gas.

"There are very real security concerns that are being neglected," says Martin Joyce, the South America defense analyst for Jane's. "One is the Amazon region where drug traffickers are operating with impunity. Secondly, we are also seeing an increased presence of Colombian guerrillas, and that requires mobility and that is why we see helicopters and military airlift high on the priority list. Then there is the new oil reserves. Part of the reason for the procurement of a nuclear submarine is because they said they need to protect those resources. Venezuela comes fairly low down the list."
By Andrew Downie | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
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Disclaimer
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Zimbabwe Opposition to March for Free, Fair Poll

HARARE, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's main opposition said on Wednesday it planned a protest next week against a crumbling economy and to press for a new constitution it says will guarantee that elections scheduled for March are free and fair. "Our march will be dubbed the freedom walk and is intended to highlight the suffering and plight of Zimbabweans, our demand for a new constitution before the elections and most importantly an even electoral field," said Tendai Biti, the secretary general of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Biti told journalists the opposition had notified the police of the protest march, which has been set for Jan. 23. An MDC executive told Reuters that police concerns over security and disruption to traffic in central Harare had been addressed in a meeting. "It was a very cordial meeting and we overcame the two concerns which they had. We will march and they will provide (a) security escort," said Morgan Komichi, an executive in the Morgan Tsvangirai-led MDC who attended the meeting. "They (police) were trying to show us that they are now a reformed police which supports and not disrupts peaceful marches," said Komichi. But Zimbabweans have tended to shy away from demonstrations mainly over fear of a heavy handed state response. Tsvangirai said earlier this month the party might boycott the elections unless President Robert Mugabe's government implemented a new constitution. Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF and the MDC have been in South African-mediated talks on revamping the constitution since June in an effort to end political and economic turmoil in the southern African country, and ensure future election results are accepted by all parties. The talks are part of a Southern African Development Community (SADC) effort after Tsvangirai and dozens of MDC leaders were reportedly beaten in custody last March after an aborted rally against Mugabe and his government. The events drew strong international criticism against Mugabe, 84 next month and Zimbabwe's sole leader since independence from Britain in 1980, and heightened calls for him to adopt democratic reforms or step down. In Washington, U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack called on the authorities to allow the protest to go forward, telling reporters "the opposition ... should be allowed to peacefully express their views." STICKING POINT The MDC and ZANU-PF have agreed on a new draft constitution but there is a deadlock over when it should be adopted. The MDC wants it implemented before national presidential and parliamentary elections while ZANU-PF wants it after the vote. Biti said the march would test ZANU-PF's commitment to democratic reforms after agreeing at the talks to ease tough security, media and electoral laws. The laws, which were passed by parliament last year, are still to be signed by Mugabe. "We have to test the sincerity of ZANU-PF but this (march) is without prejudice to the SADC dialogue, which we remain committed to. We are cautiously optimistic that an outcome may come soon," Biti said. Critics say Mugabe has in the past used state security agents to harshly quell protests against his government but analysts say tension continues to swell among a population ravaged by rising poverty and lately shortages of cash. "The MDC's biggest challenge is to mobilise despondent Zimbabweans to join the march even if police allow it. People are tired, they have lost hope and are fearful given the regime's past response to demonstrations," said John Makumbe, a political commentator critical of Mugabe's rule.
By MacDonald Dzirutwe
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Kenya Opposition Plans More Protests

NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan 16th., (NY Times) — Kenya was in partial lockdown mode on Wednesday as opposition supporters pressed ahead with plans to hold protests across the country. Demonstrators clashed with police in the streets of Mombasa, Kenya's biggest port and a main artery to the rest of East Africa. Witnesses said that hundreds of demonstrators, many of them Muslims, tried to block roundabouts in the city center but that police officers in riot gear chased them away with tear gas. Previous unrest in Mombasa has seriously disrupted food and fuel supplies, leading several neighboring countries like Uganda and Rwanda to ration gasoline. Many Muslims in Kenya support the opposition because they feel that the Kenyan government, a close American ally, has cracked down harshly on members of their community.

In Nairobi, Kenya's capital, the streets were quiet Wednesday morning. A heavy rain that fell overnight and continued into the morning seemed to dampen spirits and diminish energy for another round of street clashes. Police officers were clumped at strategic intersections across the city, but few demonstrators had gathered before noon. Many businesses were closed, though streets were open and public buses were operating normally. The last time the opposition held major rallies, fighting broke out in Nairobi's slums, with several people hacked to death and many businesses burned. Gangs of protesters with backpacks full of rocks terrorized certain neighborhoods. But there was little evidence of that on Wednesday. Kenya has remained on edge since a flawed election on Dec. 27 ignited unrest and violence across the country, claiming more than 600 lives. Mwai Kibaki, the incumbent president, was declared the winner over Raila Odinga, a top opposition leader, but several election observers said the government rigged the tallying of the results to give the president a slim, 11th-hour victory. American diplomats in Kenya have done their own analysis of poll results and concluded that the election was so flawed that it was impossible to tell who really won. Outraged opposition supporters attacked members of the president's ethnic group, with many people killed by machete-wielding mobs. More than 200,000 people have been displaced.

On Tuesday, the opposition scored its first political victory since the election, by choosing one of its own members to be the speaker of Kenya's parliament, an influential position. The opposition party won more parliament seats than the government in the December elections and used its muscle to vote in the speaker in an acrimonious, theatrical parliament session on Tuesday night. Opposition supporters celebrated afterward across the country. Many Kenyans now hope that tensions will decrease because the opposition has demonstrated that it can affect the government through its numbers in Parliament and does not need to take its grievances to the streets.
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN
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Disclaimer
No responsibility or liability shall attach itself to either myself or to the blogspot ‘Mozlink’ for any or all of the articles/images placed here. The placing of an article does not necessarily imply that I agree or accept the contents of the article as being necessarily factual in theology, dogma or otherwise.
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